Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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436 FXUS62 KMLB 061855 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 -Slight risk for severe storms through early evening. -Hot conditions forecast through the weekend, with near record highs and heat index values in the 102 to 107 range. -Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend. Current...The heat is on this afternoon with temps reaching 97 degrees at 2pm at Orlando Intl Airport and Orlando Exec. SPC has also upgraded the severe weather risk during the late afternoon and early evening with isolated to scattered strong to severe storms with the potential for hail and downburst winds. The concern window for severe storms will be from 4pm to 7pm mainly inland across the interior and well inland portions of the coastal counties. Tonight...Scattered ongoing strong to severe storms will be across the interior with activity propogating south across the interior along bounbdaries and also advecting back toward the east coast this evening. Should see much of the convection decrease in coverage across southern portions of the forecast area into late evening and/or push eastward across the Atlantic waters. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s. Friday...Another approaching mid level shortwave trough will enhance afternoon convection during the mid to late afternoon. The GFS indicate some drying across the north in the H9-H8 layer but substantial CAPE and afternoon heating should allow for scattered storms north and numerous showers and storms across the south half of the forecast area. High temps will continue above normal from 95 to 97 across the interior and 92-94 closer to the east coast. Heat indices look to top out just below advisory thresholds from 103-107 in afternoon hours. Saturday-Sunday...Low level WSW flow and some drying in the low levels will make for a hot weekend. Highs will reach the mid 90s near the coast and upper 90s across the interior. Area heat indices area forecast to reach up to 106-109 in a few spots which may require heat headlines this weekend. Have trimmed the NBM rain chances based on mid range model guidance and MOS values. It appears northern areas may only see isolated storms with scattered coverage across the central and south each afternoon. Monday...Another hot day is forecast with highs in the mid to upper 90s, an increase in moisture should allow for an uptick in afternoon showers and storms along the east coast sea breeze as it moves into the southern interior with slower progression inland north of the Cape expected. Tue-Thu...Deeper moisture will move northward from south Florida into mid to latter part of next week as mid level trough progresses through the Southeast. Tempered daily shower and storm chances slightly but still rising to 70 percent by mid week. Higher coverage of showers and storms by Wed-Thu, should reduce high temps to around 90 with heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and storm chances begin to decrease north of the Cape into the weekend before rising once again into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the area Fri-Mon, with sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions into the weekend, as hot conditions prevail and ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum RH values fall to near 40 percent Friday afternoon. Additional scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning strikes with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires. Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be lower. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Forecast high temperatures are expected to remain below record values today, but there will be a better chance of tying or breaking some record highs Friday and into the weekend. Record high temperatures for today, June 6th: DAB 6-Jun 100 1998 LEE 6-Jun 98 1998 SFB 6-Jun 101 1998 MCO 6-Jun 101 1927 MLB 6-Jun 101 1998 VRB 6-Jun 97 1998 FPR 6-Jun 100 1998 Record high temperatures for June 7th through the 9th: DAB 7-Jun 97 1985 8-Jun 99 1985 9-Jun 98 1981 LEE 7-Jun 96 2008 8-Jun 96 1985 9-Jun 98 1985 SFB 7-Jun 100 1998 8-Jun 97 1985 9-Jun 99 2006 MCO 7-Jun 98 1927 8-Jun 99 1985 9-Jun 100 1907 MLB 7-Jun 95 2014 8-Jun 97 1980 9-Jun 97 1941 VRB 7-Jun 98 1986 8-Jun 95 1995 9-Jun 94 1994 FPR 7-Jun 95 1998 8-Jun 95 1949 9-Jun 96 1980 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 IMPACT: TS likely for Greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, between 06/19Z-07/00Z. A 15% risk for storms with severe wind/hail. DISCUSSION: Plentiful instability will overturn this afternoon as the sea breezes collide over the peninsula, sparking scattered to numerous storms between 19Z and 00Z. Gusty winds to 30-50 KT and coin- sized hail are possible in a few storms, along with frequent lightning. Highest coverage will be around Greater Orlando initially before drifting toward the coastal sites through 03Z before diminishing overnight. Prevailing winds will be SW 5-15 KT, except E/SE 8-15 KT for the coastal terminals. VFR except near storms. Overnight, light/variable winds are expected. Another round of SCT storms expected Friday beyond 07/20Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 94 74 94 / 20 50 20 20 MCO 73 96 76 97 / 30 50 20 20 MLB 72 93 74 93 / 30 60 40 20 VRB 72 94 73 94 / 50 60 40 30 LEE 74 96 76 97 / 20 50 10 20 SFB 73 97 75 97 / 20 50 20 20 ORL 74 96 76 97 / 30 50 20 20 FPR 71 94 72 93 / 50 60 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Volkmer AVIATION...Heil