Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
421 FXUS62 KMLB 061307 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 907 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 -Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. -Hot conditions forecast today and through the weekend, with near record highs and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range. -Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend. Morning central FL soundings at TBW and XMR indicate the potential for isolated strong to severe storms across east central FL this afternoon. MUCAPE is near 3500 J/kg, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates near 7 degs C/km should support isolated storms with the potential for one inch hail (5% chance) and downburst winds (5% chance) up to 60 mph. Short range convective models indicate the sea breeze should push slowly inland through early afternoon with initial convection developing near or inland from the St Johns River basin. By 3-7 pm, isolated storms may become strong to severe across inland areas including metro Orlando and Osceola county. By early evening storms will likely propogate southward toward Okeechobee county and also back toward the east coast with westerly steering flow aloft. Frequent lightning will also accompany some of the storms. Before receiving some rain-cooled air in some areas with late afternoon storms, high temps should reach the mid to upper 90s across portions of the interior. The combination of the heat and humidity will produce peak heat index values in the 102-107 range (close to heat advisory criteria). Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities today. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Moved VCTS and TEMPOs earlier a bit at the inland terminals as latest guidance continues to signal SHRA developing as early as 18Z. Little more uncertainty when TSRA becomes SCT-NUM, but 19Z looks to be earliest reasonable so went with that for TEMPO starts. Added TSRA TEMPO to KTIX and held off KMLB-KSUA, but it`s a close call. Light S-SW flow will favor the WCSB, reaching KLEE by 19Z and shifting winds to W at 10-15 kts. ECSB develops around 16Z, shifting winds at coastal terminals to ESE-SE near 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Sea breezes collide INVOF the I-4 terminals around 20Z, which combined with TSRA will lead to frequent wind direction changes in the late afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Update...South winds to 10 knots this morning with seas near 2 ft at buoys 41009/41010 will support generally good boating conditions today. There will be a lightning and strong wind gust threat with storms moving toward the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters generally from 6pm to 9pm this evening. Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic slides southward across the waters with lighter winds around 5-8 knots out of the S/SSW this morning, but eventually becoming SE and increasing to 10-15 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up to 40-60 mph and small hail. Winds veer southerly and remain elevated around 10-15 knots into the evening, with winds continuing to veer to the W/SW overnight. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and storm chances begin to decrease into the weekend before rising once again into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 72 94 73 / 60 30 50 10 MCO 97 74 95 76 / 60 30 50 10 MLB 93 72 92 74 / 50 40 50 20 VRB 93 72 93 73 / 50 40 50 20 LEE 96 75 94 76 / 50 20 40 10 SFB 97 74 96 75 / 60 20 50 10 ORL 97 75 95 76 / 60 30 50 10 FPR 94 71 94 73 / 50 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Volkmer AVIATION...Haley