Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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924 FXUS62 KMLB 052333 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 733 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Sea breeze collision across Lake County this evening. We`ll see if any convection can muster across the interior/I-4 corridor, aside from some ongoing activity north of KLEE early on. Will add TEMPO groups if necessary on top of some "Vicinity" wording already in place. Onshore winds will gradually diminish and become light and variable later this evening into the overnight. Predominant offshore winds early Thu with a slow push inland of the sea breeze closer towards the coast. Higher confidence in lightning storms Thu afternoon with increased moisture and approaching shortwave, though much of this activity will occur beyond 06/18Z. Westerly steering flow will allow for higher coverage across the eastern peninsula. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Very sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend - Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms Thursday - Temperatures rise to near records late week with Heat Index values in the 100 to 107 degree range Rest of Today-Tonight... Limited PoPs once again today, as a ridge axis remains extended from the western Atlantic towards the Florida peninsula. Decreasing onshore flow will allow for a more centralized sea breeze collision over the central peninsula, however. Thus, have maintained PoPs 30-40% over the interior and inland from the Treasure Coast, where the east coast sea breeze is already interacting with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. CAMs suggest some activity lingering over the interior into this evening, before drier conditions prevail through the remainder of the overnight hours. Main threats with any convection today will be lightning strikes and gusty winds. Highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s this afternoon will become the lower to mid-70s overnight. Thursday-Friday...A mid-level shortwave trough digging through the Deep South and into Florida Thursday will push the ridge axis south of the local area. In turn, the prevailing wind regime will become westerly, ahead of an approaching weak cool front. With overall flow opposing the east coast sea breeze, the afternoon collision is forecast to occur over the eastern half of the peninsula on Thursday. The passing shortwave will provide enough support for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs increase to around 40-60% for much of the area, with the highest chances south of Orlando. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible in this area, with ample CAPE up to around 3000J/kg and bulk shear around 30kts. Forecast 500mb temperatures have warmed slightly since the previous update (~-8C). Nonetheless, some hail will be possible, though it will need to compete with above normal temperatures at the surface. Some convection will linger into the evening hours, before pushing offshore overnight. Friday, temperatures warm aloft, as the shortwave trough in the mid and upper levels weakens. Thus, PoPs are forecast to decrease. The NBM remains unreasonably high, so have limited PoPs to between 25-40% through this time period. The highest chances will remain along and inland from the Treasure Coast, with some activity drifting offshore in the evening hours. Increasing westerly flow will further pin the east coast sea breeze to the coast. High temperatures each day in the mid to upper 90s, with some daily records threatened. Heat indices forecast in the 100-107 range. Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)... East central Florida is expected to stay mostly dry through the weekend, with isolated showers and lighting storms forecast each afternoon. The greatest chance for showers and storms looks to be over the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee county. Offshore flow will persist Saturday. Diurnally sea breeze driven isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon Saturday and Sunday, as winds veer onshore near the coast. The forecast becomes uncertain into next week with guidance showing a few potential different scenarios. However, models do agree on a pattern change, with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances (PoPs ~50-60%) over east central Florida. Afternoon highs are forecast to continue in the mid to upper 90s through Monday, with some areas forecast to near 100 degrees. Increasing coverage of showers and storms would lead to nearer to normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat index values in the 98-107 degree range are forecast. Low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening, as an upper level trough crosses the area. A few storms Thursday could be strong to marginally severe. While daily shower and lightning storm chances will continue through the weekend, PoPs decrease to around 20-30% or less for much of the area (~40% for the Treasure Coast waters Friday). By next weekend, a pattern change looks to bring much higher chances for showers and storms. Outside of convection, onshore flow breaks down into tonight as the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters. Prevailing offshore winds in the morning hours will back southerly to southeasterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds will remain under 15kts through Saturday, but are forecast to increase to around 15kts Sunday and Monday, especially over the waters south of Cape Canaveral. Seas 1-3ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions will persist into this weekend, despite high pressure moving farther seaward into the western Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain modest today, but will increase Thursday, as onshore flow breaks down and the sea breeze collision occurs over the eastern half of the peninsula Thursday afternoon. However, while the chance for precipitation will increase, widespread wetting rainfall does not appear likely. In addition to an increase in lightning strikes, this will keep fire weather conditions very sensitive. Into the weekend, rain chances will once again become limited. But, a pattern change, with much higher coverage of showers and storms, looks increasingly likely next week. Some storms Thursday could be strong, with gusty winds and hail. Above normal temperatures will keep min RH values between 40-45% for much of the area through Friday. Then, drier air this weekend is forecast to lead to near-critical to critical RH, with min RH falling to as low as 30-35% over the interior. High temperatures will reach the upper 90s into the weekend, with some daily record temperatures possible. Heat indices will be in the 100-107 degree range. Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast Thursday and Friday, with control issues likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 94 73 95 / 10 40 20 30 MCO 75 97 74 96 / 20 40 20 30 MLB 74 93 73 94 / 10 50 30 30 VRB 73 94 72 95 / 10 60 40 30 LEE 75 96 75 95 / 30 30 10 30 SFB 74 98 74 97 / 20 40 20 30 ORL 76 97 76 96 / 20 40 20 30 FPR 73 94 72 95 / 10 60 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Sedlock