898
FXUS62 KMLB 090621
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
221 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light WNW-WSW winds
once again favor a diffuse WCSB, forecast to reach KLEE ~17Z and
increase winds to 5-10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals
between 16Z-20Z, earliest to the south, shifting winds initially
ESE ~10kts then veering to SE-SSE at 10-15 kts with occasional
gusts to 20 kts by around 22Z. Sea breeze collision forecast near
KSFB and near or east of KMCO/KISM ~23Z-00Z. Winds become
light/VRB after 02Z. ISO TSRA/SHRA expected along the sea breeze
collision generally west of the coastal terminals and south of the
inland terminals, but can`t rule out a brief TSRA impact so
continuing with VCTS mention at all terminals but KLEE/KDAB.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Current-Tonight... Similar to yesterday, with hot and humid
conditions prevailing and a slight downward trend in convection.
High temperatures reached in the mid to upper 90s today, with
record high temperatures reached at Ft. Pierce, Sanford, and
Leesburg. The east coast sea breeze formed this afternoon and
pushed inland, with isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms forming along the sea breeze, outflow boundaries, and
collisions late this afternoon and into the evening. The majority
of convection occurred across the southern portion of the CWA,
with activity moving up from south Florida into the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee counties. These storms produced gusty winds,
frequent lightning and moderate rainfall. Activity has diminished
this evening, with any lingering activity expected to dissipate
or push offshore over the next hour or two.

Overnight, expect mostly dry conditions, with rain chances 10
percent or less. Southeast winds around 10 mph this evening will
become light and from the southwest overnight with mostly clear
skies after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid
70s. Due to the light winds and high humidity, patchy fog will be
possible across portions of east central Florida late tonight and
into early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist outside of
convection with light offshore winds becoming southeast 10-15 knots
in the afternoon with seas 2 ft. Most likely area for lightning
storms will be south of Sebastian Inlet today and tomorrow.

Monday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with
winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening
behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are
expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning
storms increases each day through the period. Seas 2-3 ft, except
where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today-Monday...Fire sensitive conditions will continue over the next
couple of days as abnormally hot temperatures combine with lower
dewpoints as well antecedent dry soil. Sensitivity will be enhanced
by the daily threat for lightning storms, driven by the sea and lake
breeze interactions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  97  74  96  74 /  10   0  40  40
MCO  97  76  95  76 /  20  10  60  50
MLB  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  70  50
VRB  93  75  93  74 /  30  20  70  60
LEE  98  75  96  76 /  10  10  40  40
SFB  99  75  97  75 /  10  10  50  40
ORL  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  50  40
FPR  93  75  93  74 /  30  20  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Haley