484
FXUS62 KMLB 090203
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1003 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Current-Tonight... Similar to yesterday, with hot and humid
conditions prevailing and a slight downward trend in convection.
High temperatures reached in the mid to upper 90s today, with
record high temperatures reached at Ft. Pierce, Sanford, and
Leesburg. The east coast sea breeze formed this afternoon and
pushed inland, with isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms forming along the sea breeze, outflow boundaries, and
collisions late this afternoon and into the evening. The majority
of convection occurred across the southern portion of the CWA,
with activity moving up from south Florida into the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee counties. These storms produced gusty winds,
frequent lightning and moderate rainfall. Activity has diminished
this evening, with any lingering activity expected to dissipate
or push offshore over the next hour or two.

Overnight, expect mostly dry conditions, with rain chances 10
percent or less. Southeast winds around 10 mph this evening will
become light and from the southwest overnight with mostly clear
skies after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid
70s. Due to the light winds and high humidity, patchy fog will be
possible across portions of east central Florida late tonight and
into early Sunday morning.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. VCTS
through 01/02Z tonight. Some guidance is indicating patchy fog
will be possible late tonight and into Sunday morning, but
confidence is not high. Thus, have no mention in the TAF. Light
southwest winds tonight will increase to around 10 KT by mid
morning. The east coast sea breeze is expected to form and push
inland Sunday afternoon, backing the winds SE. Isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms once again Sunday
afternoon. Included VCTS from MCO-TIX southward starting 18-20Z,
with southerns sites starting at the earlier end of the range.
VCSH for SFB starting at 20Z. Have not included any TEMPOs at this
time for Sunday convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist outside of
convection with light offshore winds becoming southeast 10-15 knots
in the afternoon with seas 2 ft. Most likely area for lightning
storms will be south of Sebastian Inlet today and tomorrow.

Monday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with
winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening
behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are
expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning
storms increases each day through the period. Seas 2-3 ft, except
where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today-Monday...Fire sensitive conditions will continue over the next
couple of days as abnormally hot temperatures combine with lower
dewpoints as well antecedent dry soil. Sensitivity will be enhanced
by the daily threat for lightning storms, driven by the sea and lake
breeze interactions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  97  74  97 /  20  20   0  40
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  20  30  10  50
MLB  75  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  60
VRB  74  93  75  95 /  10  50  30  70
LEE  76  97  76  96 /  10  10   0  40
SFB  75  98  75  98 /  20  20   0  50
ORL  77  97  76  97 /  20  30  10  50
FPR  73  93  74  94 /  10  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Watson
RADAR...Sedlock/Heil