046
FXUS62 KMLB 081931
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...A stormy afternoon along the sea breeze has
initiated just beyond the borders of the forecast area, with a
complex of convection bubbling up over coastal Palm Beach County.
Storms are expected to zipper north into Martin County over the next
couple of hours, eventually drifting closer to Lake Okeechobee by
later in the day. Additional isolated activity has sparked west of
the Kissimmee River and Lake O which should impact areas south of
Orlando soon. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will be
the main impacts with today`s activity, but gusty downdrafts will
also be possible in any storms that develop, giving a quick burst of
40-50 mph winds. Trekking northward, available moisture drops off
rather significantly, falling from 1.80" PW over the Treasure Coast
to 1.50" in Lake County. As a result, coverage of showers and storms
will be much more limited for areas north and west of I-4 through
the evening.

Hot temperatures will be the other focus this afternoon, with
several locations already rising to the mid 90s. Record highs will
be threatened especially near and north of Orlando and anywhere that
doesn`t receive cooling rainfall within the next few hours. Heat
index readings are already above 100F for most reporting sites, and
may climb a couple more degrees before day`s end. Low temperatures
tonight will fall to the low 70s away from urban areas which will
only drop to the upper 70s. Humidity of 100% tonight and light winds
will offer the potential for patchy fog development just before
daybreak, which is most favored over Lake County and also
surrounding Lake O.

Sunday-Monday...Sunday will have nearly a copy-paste forecast
compared to today, with the focus for storm chances across south FL
which may seep northward near the Lake. Showers and storms will
initialize along the sea breeze boundary and become enhanced by
boundary interactions, bringing the typical summertime storm
threats. Notably, drier air holds on to the northern forecast area,
completely erasing PoPs out of northern Lake and Volusia counties.
Monday becomes the (hopefully) transitional day out of the dry
pattern, as moisture advects northward out of the southern Gulf and
Caribbean, bringing at least a chance for showers and storms to the
entire area, again much higher for southern locations. Rainfall
totals on Monday will approach a half inch, which will be welcomed
in ongoing Severe Drought conditions.

Shifting the sights to the temperature forecast, Sunday and Monday
will both threaten record highs with afternoon temps reaching the
mid to upper 90s areawide. While slightly drier air remains in place
over northern portions of the area on Sunday, higher dewpoints may
necessitate a Heat Advisory one or both days for at least the
Treasure Coast counties, as heat index readings rise above 107-108F.

Tuesday-Saturday...(previous) At this point in the forecast, rain
chances increase areawide. Synoptically, stout mid level ridging
unfolds across the southwestern U.S. as the northern stream gets cut
off from the central and southern states. Surface high pressure
settles in over the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cool front pushes into north Florida. This front
becomes modified and stalls across north FL, thanks to southerly
WAA. As a lobe of mid level energy approaches the central Gulf Coast
Wednesday into Thursday, tropical moisture and shortwave energy is
advertised to rotate northward from the Yucatan and western Cuba.

All of this combined will result in waves of rain and lightning
storms, with coverage maximized during the daytime. Model
differences still remain in regard to the placement of the highest
rain totals, with a large spread from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to
south- central Florida. Among global models, the GFS, CMC, and EC-
AIFS are situated farther east, encompassing much of the peninsula
in 1-4"+ of accumulated rainfall, while the ECMWF and ICON place the
heaviest rains over the Gulf and Florida Panhandle. Any rain, but
especially the higher end amounts, would benefit the current drought
conditions. Overall, expect an increasingly unsettled weather
pattern from Tuesday onward. Details on day-to-day storm chances and
QPF will become clearer late this weekend into Monday.

Another benefit to increasing rain chances is the associated cloud
cover and lower daytime temperatures. Highs in the low to mid 90s
Tuesday are forecast to drop back into the mid to upper 80s
Wednesday-Friday. Overnight lows stay rather mild, however, in the
70s areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist outside of
convection with light offshore winds becoming southeast 10-15 knots
in the afternoon with seas 2 ft. Most likely area for lightning
storms will be south of Sebastian Inlet today and tomorrow.

Monday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with
winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening
behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are
expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning
storms increases each day through the period. Seas 2-3 ft, except
where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today-Monday...Fire sensitive conditions will continue over the next
couple of days as abnormally hot temperatures combine with lower
dewpoints as well antecedent dry soil. Sensitivity will be enhanced
by the daily threat for lightning storms, driven by the sea and lake
breeze interactions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR persists outside of convection through the afternoon and
evening. A few storms develop this afternoon between 19Z-02Z.
Highest coverage (30-50%) for the Treasure Coast terminals, with
lesser confidence at MCO/Greater Orlando area (20-40%). TS TEMPOs
necessary for Treasure Coast. Sea breeze already advancing from
MLB to SUA, with ESE winds near the coastline. Greater Orlando
will be more VRB or SW, 5-10 KT.

There is a signal for patchy fog overnight, however with only a
20-30% chance of formation, have opted to keep out of TAFs and
monitor latest guidance for future packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  97  74  97 /  20  20   0  40
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  30  30  10  50
MLB  75  93  76  94 /  30  40  20  60
VRB  74  93  75  95 /  30  50  30  70
LEE  76  97  76  96 /  10  10   0  40
SFB  75  98  75  98 /  30  20   0  50
ORL  77  97  76  97 /  30  30  10  50
FPR  73  93  74  94 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil