664
FXUS62 KMLB 251747
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
147 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Winds 5-10 KT this afternoon with winds SW across the interior,
and onshore along the coast. The east coast sea breeze has formed
and is beginning to push inland. Isolated showers have developed
near MCO this afternoon, so have started VCSH a little earlier
than previous TAF packages. The sea breeze collision is still
expected to occur near MCO/ISM around 21Z. Have kept VCSH/VCTS for
the rest of the terminal starting at 19Z. TEMPOs for TSRA impacts
at MLB- SUA from 20-24Z. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in
stronger storms. Showers and storms should clear by 00-02Z. VFR
conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Winds
will become light and variable overnight before speeds increase to
around 5-10 KT and winds become SW across the interior and
onshore along the coast by mid-morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Forecast remains on track for a stormy afternoon for some, and a
hot day for everyone. SPC has expanded the Marginal risk (level 1
of 5) for severe thunderstorms west a bit, now including all of
Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties to the Kissimmee River.
Strong to marginally severe winds remain the primary threat due to
the potential for dry air entrainment to enhance downdrafts
(DCAPE values 1,000-1,500 J/kg), producing gusts 40-50 mph and
possibly locally damaging gusts over 60 mph. There could be a very
localized threat for hail up to 1", with mesoscale guidance
periodically analyzing SHIP bull`s eyes up to 1.0 along the sea
breeze from Melbourne south, but increasing mid-level
temperatures will keep this hazard fairly limited. There should be
enough low-level westerly flow to help storms move along and
offshore, but can`t rule out some near stationary back builders,
which combined with heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 1.6", could
lead to some localized minor flooding. All storms will be capable
of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning.

As for the rest of the forecast, hot. Southwesterly to westerly
flow will push temperatures inland into the M-U90s, and hold off
the east coast sea breeze long enough for the coastal corridor to
reach the U80-L90s by around 2 PM, which then drop back a bit once
the sea breeze pushes inland. For what it`s worth, all climate
sites are forecast 3-5 degrees short of their high temperature
records, so not quite record breaking heat, but still plenty hot
enough folks should be mindful of how long they`ve been in the
sun, drink plenty of water, and take breaks in the shade.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...Favorable winds and seas, but isolated to
scattered offshore moving lightning storms are expected to push
offshore in the late afternoon and evening, then work eastward
across the waters through the early overnight. Some of these
storms could become strong, capable of gusty winds over 35 kts and
locally higher seas. The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure
will remain south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light
SW-WSW winds this morning that back to SE-ESE at around 10 kts in
the afternoon after the sea breeze develops, returning to light
SW-WSW late tonight. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  93  72  94 /  20  10   0  10
MCO  72  97  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  73  90  74  93 /  30  10  10  10
VRB  71  92  73  94 /  30  10  10  20
LEE  73  95  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  72  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  71  92  72  95 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Watson