Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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914 FXUS62 KMLB 271953 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 353 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Heat continues with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices 100 to 105+ on Tuesday - Rain and storm chances increase from mid morning into the afternoon on Tuesday - Daytime rain showers and isolated storms persist from mid week into next weekend Now-Tonight...Dry conditions and plenty of sunshine have allowed temperatures to climb into the mid and upper 90s this afternoon. In fact, Melbourne and Fort Pierce have both unofficially broken their daily high temperature records. Heat indices are peaking in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, especially along the coast, where the east coast sea breeze has formed and is beginning to trek westward. Continue to practice heat safety by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning. Temperatures will remain warm into the evening, falling back into the 80s by 9 PM. Additionally, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out around Lake Okeechobee or the Treasure Coast as the sea breeze moves inland through the evening. Weak high pressure will continue to break down overnight as a mid level trough swings into north Florida. Temperatures around daybreak Tuesday are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s with very similar dew points. Tuesday-Tuesday Night...As a mid level trough and attendant energy drops south across the FL Peninsula Tuesday morning, a weak surface cold front is also expected to stall near or just north of our forecast area. Out ahead of these features, temperatures will quickly warm into the 80s/90s with modeled PW around 1.6-1.7". Forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates, followed by modest mid-level lapse rates and 500mb temps around -9C. The east coast sea breeze may be delayed into the afternoon by persistent westerlies but will provide an additional focus for shower and storm activity. A smattering of showers and storms are outlined by a number of CAMs, though QPF output is light from most model sources. Reasonable uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage, so for now, PoPs were kept to around 30-40 percent areawide. Along the Treasure Coast, values near 50 percent were included, due to slightly higher coverage expected along the sea breeze boundary. A strong storm or two capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Activity will gradually wane after sunset, dissipating by mid to late evening everywhere. Daytime temperatures will depend on a couple of factors, namely how early convection and the east coast breeze get going. Highs across the Lake O and Treasure Coast region are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s again, while locations farther north may only top out in the low to mid 90s. Again, this is dependent on how convection, associated clouds, and the sea breeze all take shape. Due to the slight increase in moisture across the area, heat indices reaching the low to mid 100s will be common, especially from the Orlando/Titusville areas southward. Heat exhaustion is likely with prolonged exposure, so it will be another day to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in shade or air conditioning to cool down. Wednesday-Sunday...Upper level flow stays west-northwest through much of the week as the east coast breeze develops and pushes inland each afternoon. Surface winds begin to turn onshore mid to late week, as well. Afternoon temps Wednesday through Friday stay consistent in the low to mid 90s, trending cooler into next weekend. Daily rain chances stay on the lower end of PoP Wed-Thu (15 to 30 percent), increasing to around 35 to 45 percent Friday afternoon as a mid level impulse and sea breeze collision support more showers and storms. Breezy conditions are forecast for Saturday, as the early week stationary front across north FL pushes south through the area. Confidence is lower regarding daily afternoon rain chances next weekend, though for now it appears many locations will stay dry through the better part of Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Tonight...SSE winds increase after sunset, especially over the Gulf Stream, to around 15-17 kt. Isolated showers and a storm or two are possible, though coverage is expected to increase further during the day Tuesday. Seas generally 2-3 ft. Tuesday-Friday...Rain and isolated storm chances increase through the day on Tuesday ahead of an approaching, weak frontal boundary. Winds begin westerly around 10-15 kt, veering onshore as the sea breeze develops by the afternoon. A few storms could product gusty winds of 30 knots or greater and frequent lightning strikes. Outside of storms, generally favorable boating is expected with seas 2-3 ft. Daily rain and storm chances persist from mid week into next weekend, perhaps with slightly greater coverage on Friday. Surface flow remains light Wednesday, veering increasingly onshore from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds increase Friday as the early week front sags south and pushes across the local waters Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Rest of Today...Fire sensitive to near-critical conditions persist this afternoon (especially inland) as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 90s with relative humidity around 30 to 35 percent. The east coast sea breeze will increase humidity values along the coast and as it pushes inland through the evening. Tuesday-Friday...Rain and storm chances increase Tuesday ahead of an approaching front and in association with increased moisture. Min RH values fall again into the upper 20s to upper 30s mid to late week, leading to persistent fire sensitive conditions. Light surface flow gradually veers onshore mid to late week, becoming breezy by the first half of next weekend. Locally higher seas are possible in the vicinity of storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is an outside chance of a SHRA/TSRA INVOF KVRB-KSUA but chances are too low for VC mention. Most terminals remain in Wrly winds around 10 kts due to a favored WCSB, but along the coast the ECSB has finally started to push inland near KVRB-KSUA, and should follow suit at KMLB-KDAB by around 20Z, turning winds S-SE. ECFL terminals remain dry through late Tuesday morning, then SHRA/TSRA chances increase as a weakening frontal boundary sags into or just short of the area. Terminals along and north of I-4 pick up VCTS at 15Z-17Z, and will need to be added to the remaining ECFL terminals after 18Z in the next package. TEMPOs for TSRA VIS reductions will likely be needed, but at the moment cloud bases look high enough to not warrant CIG reductions. Predominantly Wrly winds 5-10 kts Tuesday between large scale flow and storm outflow, but should seem some ECSB develop reaching the coastal terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 93 72 91 / 10 30 10 10 MCO 75 94 74 96 / 10 40 10 20 MLB 75 93 74 91 / 20 30 30 20 VRB 74 95 73 91 / 20 40 40 30 LEE 75 92 73 95 / 20 40 0 10 SFB 74 95 73 95 / 10 40 10 10 ORL 76 94 75 96 / 10 40 10 20 FPR 74 95 72 92 / 20 50 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Haley