431
FXUS62 KMLB 051916
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
316 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

- Very sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this
  weekend

- Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms Thursday

- Temperatures rise to near records late week with Heat Index
  values in the 100 to 107 degree range


Rest of Today-Tonight... Limited PoPs once again today, as a ridge
axis remains extended from the western Atlantic towards the
Florida peninsula. Decreasing onshore flow will allow for a more
centralized sea breeze collision over the central peninsula,
however. Thus, have maintained PoPs 30-40% over the interior and
inland from the Treasure Coast, where the east coast sea breeze is
already interacting with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. CAMs suggest
some activity lingering over the interior into this evening,
before drier conditions prevail through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Main threats with any convection today will be
lightning strikes and gusty winds. Highs in the upper 80s to
mid-90s this afternoon will become the lower to mid-70s
overnight.

Thursday-Friday...A mid-level shortwave trough digging through
the Deep South and into Florida Thursday will push the ridge axis
south of the local area. In turn, the prevailing wind regime will
become westerly, ahead of an approaching weak cool front. With
overall flow opposing the east coast sea breeze, the afternoon
collision is forecast to occur over the eastern half of the
peninsula on Thursday. The passing shortwave will provide enough
support for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs
increase to around 40-60% for much of the area, with the highest
chances south of Orlando. A few strong to marginally severe storms
will be possible in this area, with ample CAPE up to around
3000J/kg and bulk shear around 30kts. Forecast 500mb temperatures
have warmed slightly since the previous update (~-8C).
Nonetheless, some hail will be possible, though it will need to
compete with above normal temperatures at the surface. Some
convection will linger into the evening hours, before pushing
offshore overnight.

Friday, temperatures warm aloft, as the shortwave trough in the
mid and upper levels weakens. Thus, PoPs are forecast to decrease.
The NBM remains unreasonably high, so have limited PoPs to between
25-40% through this time period. The highest chances will remain
along and inland from the Treasure Coast, with some activity
drifting offshore in the evening hours. Increasing westerly flow
will further pin the east coast sea breeze to the coast. High
temperatures each day in the mid to upper 90s, with some daily
records threatened. Heat indices forecast in the 100-107 range.

Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)... East central Florida is
expected to stay mostly dry through the weekend, with isolated
showers and lighting storms forecast each afternoon. The greatest
chance for showers and storms looks to be over the Treasure Coast
to Okeechobee county. Offshore flow will persist Saturday.
Diurnally sea breeze driven isolated to scattered showers and
lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon
Saturday and Sunday, as winds veer onshore near the coast.

The forecast becomes uncertain into next week with guidance
showing a few potential different scenarios. However, models do
agree on a pattern change, with increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances (PoPs ~50-60%) over east central Florida. Afternoon highs
are forecast to continue in the mid to upper 90s through Monday,
with some areas forecast to near 100 degrees. Increasing coverage
of showers and storms would lead to nearer to normal temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat index values in the 98-107 degree
range are forecast. Low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a
series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over
the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening,
as an upper level trough crosses the area. A few storms Thursday
could be strong to marginally severe. While daily shower and
lightning storm chances will continue through the weekend, PoPs
decrease to around 20-30% or less for much of the area (~40% for
the Treasure Coast waters Friday). By next weekend, a pattern
change looks to bring much higher chances for showers and storms.

Outside of convection, onshore flow breaks down into tonight as
the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters. Prevailing
offshore winds in the morning hours will back southerly to
southeasterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds
will remain under 15kts through Saturday, but are forecast to
increase to around 15kts Sunday and Monday, especially over the
waters south of Cape Canaveral. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
into this weekend, despite high pressure moving farther seaward
into the western Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm chances remain
modest today, but will increase Thursday, as onshore flow breaks
down and the sea breeze collision occurs over the eastern half
of the peninsula Thursday afternoon. However, while the chance
for precipitation will increase, widespread wetting rainfall does
not appear likely. In addition to an increase in lightning strikes,
this will keep fire weather conditions very sensitive. Into the
weekend, rain chances will once again become limited. But, a
pattern change, with much higher coverage of showers and storms,
looks increasingly likely next week. Some storms Thursday could
be strong, with gusty winds and hail.

Above normal temperatures will keep min RH values between 40-45%
for much of the area through Friday. Then, drier air this weekend
is forecast to lead to near-critical to critical RH, with min RH
falling to as low as 30-35% over the interior. High temperatures
will reach the upper 90s into the weekend, with some daily
record temperatures possible. Heat indices will be in the 100-107
degree range. Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast
Thursday and Friday, with control issues likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Afternoon seabreeze will drift inland, potentially sparking a few
showers or storms over Greater Orlando terminals this
afternoon/early evening. TAFs will include VCSH, though trends will
be monitored for upgrade to TS (confidence in storm coverage today
remains low). E winds dominate through sunset, then becoming
variable overnight. On Thursday, offshore wind regime develops,
becoming WSW 10-15 KT by afternoon. Exception will be coastal
terminals, where a pinned seabreeze will back winds to ESE after
06/15-17Z. Storms are more likely on Thursday afternoon, though much
of this activity will occur beyond 06/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  94  73  95 /  10  40  20  30
MCO  75  97  74  96 /  20  40  20  30
MLB  74  93  73  94 /  10  50  30  30
VRB  73  94  72  95 /  10  60  40  30
LEE  75  96  75  95 /  30  30  10  30
SFB  74  98  74  97 /  20  40  20  30
ORL  76  97  76  96 /  20  40  20  30
FPR  73  94  72  95 /  10  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil