747
FXUS62 KMLB 220750
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Today-Thursday...Mid level troughing offshore the southeast U.S.
is nudged seaward as ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico and
over Florida. Surface high pressure remains near the eastern
seaboard. Ridging in place promotes warming temperatures and
drying conditions today and tomorrow. Onshore flow will allow for
the inland progression of the east coast seabreeze each afternoon.
The best chance for an isolated shower will be in vicinity of
Lake Okeechobee where lake and sea breeze boundaries interact.
Afternoon temperatures warm into the low 90s across the interior
today, remaining in the mid to upper 80s along and east of I-95.
Temperatures trend above seasonal values tomorrow, ranging the
upper 80s along the coast and nearing the mid 90s across the
interior.


Friday-Tuesday...Warm and muggy conditions continue to build
as moisture returns and a flattening 500mb ridge holds influence
over the Florida peninsula. High temperatures further climb
through the weekend and into early next week, reaching the upper
90s along and west of I-95 on Sunday. Not much relief on the coast
with highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values
between 97-102 on Friday, increase to 100-107 degrees early next
week, nearing Heat Advisory criteria. Take extra precaution if
participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend.
Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay
hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness!

Coverage of isolated showers and storms return across much of east
central Florida through the weekend and early next week while PoPs
generally remain 20 percent or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Today-Tonight...Seas up to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream gradually
subside, becoming widely 2-3 ft by sunset. Onshore flow persists,
increasing to around 10 kts this afternoon. Locally higher winds
will be possible near the coast as a sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Mostly dry with shower activity limited to the Treasure
Coast waters.


Thursday-Sunday...High pressure builds across the local waters,
promoting favorable boating conditions through the period. Onshore
winds veer south-southwest into Friday, backing along the coast each
afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts
Thursday increase to 10-15 kts into the weekend. Isolated showers
and lightning storms will be possible across the Treasure Coast
waters Thursday and Friday with coverage expanding to the Brevard
waters Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Mid to Late Week...High pressure builds across east central Florida
promoting drying conditions and warming temperatures. Fire sensitive
conditions are forecast into late week as minimum relative humidity
values fall between 35-45 percent, generally west of I-95.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Continued mainly VFR thru the period. Light onshore flow overnight
will continue NE/ENE into Wed with speeds increasing 10-15 kts
thru the afternoon with some higher gusts. ISOLD aftn shower or
lightning storm KFPR-KSUA-KOBE surrounding ECSB/Lake Okeechobee
breeze. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Will use "Vicinity"
wording and TEMPO groups as necessary. Diminished convective
chances past early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  87  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  91  70  93  72 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  85  72  87  72 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  87  70  89  70 /  10   0  10   0
LEE  92  71  93  73 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  91  69  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  91  70  94  72 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  87  68  88  69 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock