Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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667 FXUS62 KMLB 211727 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 127 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers have developed along the inland-moving east coast sea breeze early this afternoon. Low confidence in an increase in coverage or any lightning, so have maintained a VCSH mention for terminals from MCO/ISM/TIX northward. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Any convective activity will diminish into this evening. Easterly flow through the period will increase to around 10-15kts behind the sea breeze, with lighter winds overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 A light to moderate low level NE flow will exist across the area today, between high pressure to the north of the state and low pressure well offshore over the west Atlantic. There is limited moisture in place across the area, with morning soundings and GOES-16 PW imagery showing PW values around 1-1.2" across central FL. However, model guidance does show a modest increase in these values to around 1.4-1.5" through the day with the onshore flow. Mid-level trough axis extended across the area may allow for some enhanced lift with the inland moving east coast sea breeze to produce scattered showers and isolated storms. However, CAM guidance showing less than impressive convective coverage today. Therefore, lowered rain chances today, and are no more that 30-40 percent, mainly across the interior and northern coast, while for coastal locations from Melbourne south, PoPs are only around 20 percent. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs in the 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Today-Tonight...Low pressure situated far offshore will support northeast winds around 5-10 kts. Small craft should exercise caution across the offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters before sunrise for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Seas gradually subside through the day, becoming widely 3-4 ft late tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast. Wednesday-Saturday...Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast through late week, promoting favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10 kts veer south into Friday. Mostly dry with the best chance for a shower or storm limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to scattered showers then return across all waters on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 85 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 71 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 73 85 72 87 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 71 88 70 88 / 20 10 0 10 LEE 71 90 72 93 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 70 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 71 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 70 87 69 88 / 20 20 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Leahy