Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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894 FXUS62 KMLB 290754 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 354 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 - Heat continues, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through Thursday - Sensitive fire weather conditions persist Today-Tonight...A weak cool front drops into the local area today, ushering in much drier air for northern portions of the forecast area. PWATs from around Orlando northward will fall to around 1" this afternoon, while areas to the south remain around 1.25-1.6". Thus, much lower rain and thunderstorm chances today for most areas, with CAMs only supporting convection for areas along the Treasure Coast and across Okeechobee County. PoPs 20-30% in this area this afternoon, while PoPs remain below 15% elsewhere. Thunderstorms will need to overcome dry air in the mid-levels. However, should they develop, they will be capable of gusty winds to around 50mph due to forecast DCAPE around 1200J/kg, lightning strikes, locally heavy downpours, and small hail. Light northerly winds are forecast this morning, but will become onshore this afternoon, as the sea breeze develops and begins to move inland. A later onset of the sea breeze will allow for afternoon temperatures to once again soar into the mid to upper 90s across the interior, with lower 90s along the coast. The sites with the best chance for seeing a record high today will be Leesburg and Sanford, which have the lowest current record high temperatures for the date of 95 and 98 degrees, respectively. Fortunately, drier air will provide some relief from higher heat indices. Any convection that manages to develop will diminish this evening, with dry conditions then prevailing for the overnight hours. Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday-Friday...The aforementioned front lingers in the vicinity of the local area through the remainder of the work week. Continued dry air on Thursday is forecast to further limit shower and thunderstorm chances, with generally no mentionable PoPs forecast. The exception is a slight chance (~15%) of showers and storms along the north shore of Lake Okeechobee in the afternoon. Otherwise, a near rinse and repeat scenario to Wednesday is expected, with a late sea breeze allowing afternoon highs to rise into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast. By Friday enough moisture looks to be able to seep back into the local area to aid a passing upper level trough in supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the interior. PoPs increase to 20-30% across the area, though an increase in onshore flow looks to enhance the east coast sea breeze, with the collision occurring on the western half of the peninsula. A slightly earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally provide a small amount of relief from near-record high temperatures. Highs Friday afternoon forecast in the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast and the lower to mid-90s inland. Overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day. The Weekend-Early Next Week...The weak cool front is forecast to finally push south of the area Saturday, as a ridge builds into the western Atlantic. Models continue to differ on the amount of dry air that will filter in behind the front. So, have maintained NBM PoPs of 20-30% each day, though this is likely generous. Will also need to monitor the thunderstorm threat, as dry air in the mid and upper levels will likely prevent most deep updrafts. The east coast sea breeze looks to remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing to up to 15mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures nearer to normal, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few mid-80s will even be possible along the coast. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through mid-week. A weak cool front pushes into the area today, confining afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the Treasure Coast waters. By Thursday, no mentionable PoPs are forecast for the local Atlantic waters. Northwesterly winds early in the mornings will veer northeast/east into the afternoons, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 1-2ft. Friday-Sunday...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic increases onshore winds to around 15kts or even 15-20kts at times. PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3ft Friday will build to up to 4-5ft this weekend, as winds increase. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Today...Drier air filters into the local area today, with min RH values falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and 40-50% for coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather conditions are expected today, with light northerly winds this morning veering onshore at around 10mph this afternoon, very dry fuels, and excellent dispersion. Temperatures will also rise into the mid to upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the coast. A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but precipitation is not otherwise forecast. Thursday-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thursday, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around 10mph in the afternoon hours, with very good to excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. The difference will be the lack of forecast precipitation, with only areas along the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee forecast at a 15% chance of rain and storms. Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15mph and precipitation chances remain low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Weak front moves south into the area later this morning and stalls south of Orlando in he afternoon. Winds becoming NNW to N 10-12 knots and gusty behind the front then veering E/NE as the inland-moving east coast sea breeze pushes steadily inland during the afternoon. Most terminals will be dry Wed though isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible near and to the south of the front, mainly across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in the aftn. Greatest potential looks to be near KSUA, so have maintained a VCSH mention there starting at 17Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 97 72 96 72 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 92 72 90 73 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 93 71 91 71 / 20 0 10 10 LEE 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 97 71 95 71 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 97 73 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 93 70 91 70 / 20 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Kelly