135
FXUS62 KMLB 301758
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
158 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northeast winds this
afternoon will increase to around 12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT
possible, especially across the Treasure Coast. Few mid to high
level clouds streaming over head today. Winds will become light
and variable tonight before becoming NE once again around 10 KT.
Breeze conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon, with
winds increasing to 10-15 KT in the mid morning with gusts to
around 20 KT possible, especially in the afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon,
especially across the interior. Have included VCTS for MCO
starting at 18Z and will likely add VC wording for the other sites
in later packages. TEMPOs may be added later depending on timing
and coverage confidence.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Current-Tonight...The shallow patchy ground fog from early this
morning has dissipated across ECFL, with special thanks to the
higher sun angle this time of year. A weak, hard to discern
frontal boundary from yesterday will linger across south-central
FL today with moisture pooling along it. The moisture gradient
will be fairly tight with highest PWATs from 1.70-2.00 inches
south from Melbourne. As such, greatest afternoon-early evening
convection potential (20-30pct) will exist south of Orlando and
southwest of Melbourne. Primary storm concerns will be lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Some mid-level
energy, cooler temps aloft (-8.0C to -10.0C), and the inland
moving ECSB will aid in development later today. Activity winds
down by mid-evening southward. Otherwise mainly dry elsewhere and
continued hot. High temps in the U80s to L90s near the coast and
generally M90s inland. Peak heat indices in the 90s, but will
approach 100F toward Lake Okeechobee. Conditions remain warm/humid
overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s and M-U70s for the
barrier islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Today...Only a slight chance mention for PoPs in the afternoon
are forecast for the Treasure Coast waters. Most of the aftn
storms will remain over the peninsula. Light W to NW flow this
morning will turn NE-E 10-12 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this
weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard
then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts
and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Mainly dry conditions.
Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Sat and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  88  72  85 /  10  20   0  10
MCO  71  92  72  87 /  10  30  10  10
MLB  73  88  74  86 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  71  89  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  71  93  70  89 /  10  30   0  10
SFB  71  91  70  88 /  10  20   0  10
ORL  73  92  72  88 /  10  30  10  10
FPR  71  89  72  87 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson