Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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664 FXUS62 KMLB 251747 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 147 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Winds 5-10 KT this afternoon with winds SW across the interior, and onshore along the coast. The east coast sea breeze has formed and is beginning to push inland. Isolated showers have developed near MCO this afternoon, so have started VCSH a little earlier than previous TAF packages. The sea breeze collision is still expected to occur near MCO/ISM around 21Z. Have kept VCSH/VCTS for the rest of the terminal starting at 19Z. TEMPOs for TSRA impacts at MLB- SUA from 20-24Z. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in stronger storms. Showers and storms should clear by 00-02Z. VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Winds will become light and variable overnight before speeds increase to around 5-10 KT and winds become SW across the interior and onshore along the coast by mid-morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Forecast remains on track for a stormy afternoon for some, and a hot day for everyone. SPC has expanded the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms west a bit, now including all of Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties to the Kissimmee River. Strong to marginally severe winds remain the primary threat due to the potential for dry air entrainment to enhance downdrafts (DCAPE values 1,000-1,500 J/kg), producing gusts 40-50 mph and possibly locally damaging gusts over 60 mph. There could be a very localized threat for hail up to 1", with mesoscale guidance periodically analyzing SHIP bull`s eyes up to 1.0 along the sea breeze from Melbourne south, but increasing mid-level temperatures will keep this hazard fairly limited. There should be enough low-level westerly flow to help storms move along and offshore, but can`t rule out some near stationary back builders, which combined with heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 1.6", could lead to some localized minor flooding. All storms will be capable of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning. As for the rest of the forecast, hot. Southwesterly to westerly flow will push temperatures inland into the M-U90s, and hold off the east coast sea breeze long enough for the coastal corridor to reach the U80-L90s by around 2 PM, which then drop back a bit once the sea breeze pushes inland. For what it`s worth, all climate sites are forecast 3-5 degrees short of their high temperature records, so not quite record breaking heat, but still plenty hot enough folks should be mindful of how long they`ve been in the sun, drink plenty of water, and take breaks in the shade. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...Favorable winds and seas, but isolated to scattered offshore moving lightning storms are expected to push offshore in the late afternoon and evening, then work eastward across the waters through the early overnight. Some of these storms could become strong, capable of gusty winds over 35 kts and locally higher seas. The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure will remain south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light SW-WSW winds this morning that back to SE-ESE at around 10 kts in the afternoon after the sea breeze develops, returning to light SW-WSW late tonight. Seas 1-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 10 MCO 72 97 73 97 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 73 90 74 93 / 30 10 10 10 VRB 71 92 73 94 / 30 10 10 20 LEE 73 95 74 94 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 72 96 74 96 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 73 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 71 92 72 95 / 30 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Watson