Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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714 FXUS62 KMLB 270005 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 805 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast as an upper-level ridge builds over the state of Florida ahead of a shortwave trough Monday night. SE winds at around 5-10kts with the exception of KLEE (WNW) will become light and variable overnight before increasing into Monday morning from the WSW at 5-10kts. Winds are expected to back SE at the coastal TAF sites into the afternoon at 10kts. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Rest of Today-Monday...Very hot and mostly dry. A few brief showers have beaten the odds and developed along the east coast sea breeze as it collided with the Okeechobee lake breeze, and might even get a few lightning strikes out of one or two. Additional showers and maybe a lightning storm will be possible, mainly along the ECSB/WCSB collision near the Kissimmee River later in the evening. Didn`t get too cute with PoPs, and just walked the 20 pct along the Treasure Coast counties starting at 2 PM inland to Okeechobee and southern Osceola by 8 PM, then quickly clearing. A near carbon copy of rain and storm chances is forecast for tomorrow, limited to the southern counties along the sea and lake breeze collisions. The main headline remains temperatures, especially Memorial Day. The mid-level ridge shifts southward across Florida tomorrow, increasing subsidence and deepening the surface high a bit, increasing westerly flow to around 10 mph by the afternoon. Afternoon highs today in the M-U90s inland, L-M90s along the I-95 corridor, and U80s-L90s along the barrier islands, increase a couple more degrees tomorrow. Highs forecast in the upper 90s across the interior, with a few 100s now advertised in Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties. Elsewhere, highs in the M90s north of I-4 and along the I-95 corridor, and generally in the L90s along the barrier islands, but a few spots may only reach the U80s, depending on the sea breeze. The slightly fresher westerly flow will further slow progression of the ECSB, which may only make it west of I-95 south of the Cape. Peak afternoon heat indices up to 104F today and 105F tomorrow, but coastal locations could briefly see higher values as moisture increases when the sea breeze first pushes onshore. Tuesday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...A mid-level trough digging into the southeastern US will push a weak frontal boundary southwards towards the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, bringing increasing moisture locally. This will result in a return of rain and storm chances, with PoPs increasing to 30 to 50 percent across the area. Isolated storms will also be possible. The boundary is forecast to settle across the peninsula mid-week and gradually diminish, with lingering moisture from the boundary combining with the east coast sea breeze to produce daily diurnal convection each afternoon through the remainder of the week. PoPs remain between 20 to 40 percent, with isolated storms remaining possible. Activity through the long term will diminish each evening into the overnight hours. Warm temperatures will continue across east central Florida through the extended period, though guidance does have temperatures decreasing a couple of degrees each afternoon. Highs in the 90s Tuesday through Thursday will fall slightly into the mid 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. Peak heat indices reaching over 100 will continue Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Rest of Today-Monday...Favorable boating conditions, except the heat. High pressure extending from the western Atlantic over Florida, with the ridge axis well to the south, remains in command. Wrly flow 5-10 kts is interrupted in the afternoon and evening be the sea breeze, backing winds to the S-SSE 10-15 kts. A nocturnal wind surge Monday evening as flow returns to westerly could push winds to 15-20 kts in the Brevard and Treasure Coast waters the first half of the night. Seas 1-3 ft. Mostly dry conditions. Tuesday-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through much of this week. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period, with light west-southwest winds Monday and Tuesday becoming south- southeast and north-northwest winds Wednesday and Thursday becoming easterly as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Scattered showers and isolated storms return to the forecast on Tuesday as a weak boundary approaches the area, with rain and storm chances continuing through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Ongoing heat across east central Florida will lead to continued sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values will remain in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior west of I-95 through the remainder of this weekend and at least through the middle of the week, and could drop as low as 30 percent in parts of Okeechobee and Osceola counties. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph, with the east coast sea breeze shifting west- southwest winds to the south to southeast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast today and Monday, with rain and storm chances returning Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 40 MCO 73 97 74 95 / 10 10 10 40 MLB 73 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 40 VRB 73 96 74 94 / 10 20 20 40 LEE 73 94 75 94 / 10 0 10 40 SFB 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 10 40 ORL 74 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 40 FPR 71 96 72 94 / 10 20 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Fehling