579
FXUS62 KMLB 291917
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
317 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...Continued Hot Today with Afternoon High Temperatures in the Mid
to Upper 90s West of I-95 through Thursday...

...Sensitive Fire Weather Conditions Continue...

Current-Tonight...The heat continues with M-U90s interior and L90s
near the coast this afternoon. Peak heat indices well into the 90s,
except 100-105F south of the Melbourne-Kenansville line. As a weak
frontal boundary slides toward Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, where
it will eventually become quasi-stationary, drier air will follow
southward behind it. Northerly winds 10-15 mph (some higher gusts)
behind this feature will gradually veer NE/E (coast-inland) with an
earlier initiation of the ECSB. Deepest moisture values will be
associated in vicinity of the front and hence greatest convective
threat across Okeechobee County, southern Brevard, and the Treasure
Coast. Highest PoPs southward 20-30pct. Primary storm threats
include frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to around 50 mph
locally, small hail, and heavy downpours. Diurnal activity will wind
down near mid-evening well south, with mainly dry conditions
overnight. Continued mild and humid overnight with mins in the U60s
to L70s, with M70s for barrier islands.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Thu-Fri...The aforementioned front lingers in the vicinity of the
local area through the remainder of the work-week. Continued dry air
on Thu is forecast to further limit shower and thunderstorm
chances, especially across the I-4 corridor, though have recently
added 20-30pct PoPs with surrounding offices across the interior
and through Lake Okeechobee closer in vicinity to the previous
front as well as deepest moisture exists here. Models also hint
at some mid-level energy traversing the area later in the day.
Afternoon highs to rise into the M-U90s inland and L90s along the
coast, with a slow inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon.

By Fri enough moisture will seep back into the local area to aid a
passing upper level trough in supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the interior. PoPs increase to 20-40% across the
area, though an increase in onshore flow looks to enhance the ECSB,
with the collision occurring on the western half of the peninsula. A
slightly earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally provide a
small amount of relief from near-record high temperatures. Highs Fri
afternoon forecast in the U80s to near 90 along the coast and the L-
M90s inland. Overnight lows remaining in the U60s to L70s.

The Weekend-Early Next Week...The weak frontal boundary is forecast
to finally push south of the area Sat, as a ridge builds into the
western Atlc. Models continue to differ on the amount of dry air
that will filter in behind the front. So, have maintained NBM PoPs
of 20-30% each day, though this is likely generous. Will also need
to monitor the thunderstorm threat, as dry air in the mid and upper
levels will likely prevent most deep updrafts. The ECSB will remain
dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing to up to 15 mph this
weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep
high temperatures near normal, in the U80s to L90s. A few M80s will
even be possible along the coast. Overnight lows in the M-U60s.

&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Remainder of afternoon-Thu...Generally favorable boating conditions
prevail through mid-week. A weak frontal boundary settles south
across the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon, confining
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the Treasure Coast
waters. By Thu, only a slight chance mention for PoPs in the
afternoon are forecast for the Treasure Coast waters. NWRLY winds
early in the morning will veer northeast/east into the afternoon,
as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15 kts. Seas
1-2 ft.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this
weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic
increases onshore winds to around 15 kts or even 15-20 kts at times.
PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3 ft Fri will
build to up to 4-5 ft this weekend, as winds increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Remainder of Afternoon-Evening...Drier air filters into the local
area behind a recent weak frontal boundary, with min RH values
falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and 40-50% for
coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather conditions are
expected, with light northerly winds veering onshore at 10-15 mph,
very dry fuels, and Excellent dispersion. Temperatures into the mid
to upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the coast. A few
showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland from
the Treasure Coast and across Okeechobee County where moisture
remains deepest and closest proximity to a surface front.

Thu-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thu, with
min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50%
along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around 10
mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion and
high temperatures in the 90s. Have added a 20-30pct chance for
showers and storms across the interior/Lake Okeechobee region for
the afternoon.

Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this
weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the
interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as
onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and
precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Went ahead
and added VCTS to KFPR-KSUA for ISO TSRA/SHRA 21Z-00Z, and can`t
rule out a short-fused TEMPO depending on convective development.
All other terminals remain dry. Wind Nrly 5-15 kts with occasional
gusts veer to Erly behind the sea breeze, developing around 18Z
and reaching the inland terminals after 21Z, becoming light and
variable overnight after 02Z. Winds wake up NNE-NE at 5-10 kts
Thursday morning, becoming NE-ENE around 10 kts behind the sea
breeze. Mostly dry conditions Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  89  71  88 /   0  10   0  20
MCO  72  95  72  92 /   0  10   0  30
MLB  72  90  73  88 /   0  10  10  30
VRB  71  91  72  90 /  10  10  10  30
LEE  71  95  72  92 /   0  10   0  30
SFB  71  95  71  92 /   0  10   0  30
ORL  74  95  73  92 /   0  10   0  30
FPR  70  91  71  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley