Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 070143
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
843 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SURFACE
ANALYSES DEPICTED SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS EVENING. A
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS
ELEVATED AND OCNLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. A SMALL THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUCH AS DRIZZLE OR MIST BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT MEASURING. SOME BRIEF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT PCPN BUT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH M/U40S N OF I-4...U50S/L60S SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

SATURDAY...PREVIOUS...W/NW POST FRONTAL FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL KEEP THE BNDRY S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS WHAT LITTLE
SFC/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IT MAY GENERATE. FURTHERMORE...COOL AIR
ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE N/NERLY BREEZE COUPLED WITH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE IN THE U60S/L70S ALONG AND N
OF I-4... BLO THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS ADVERTISED BY THE FCST
SOUNDINGS (M70S).

AS SUCH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE-CAPE
CANAVERAL NWD...INCREASING TO 30-40PCT S OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS. EVEN SO...WITH THE LACK OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND H85-H70 LAPSE RATES BLO 5.0C/KM...ANY PRECIP
WILL BE LIGHT STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH QPF BLO 0.10"

&&

.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF ECFL THRU OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS
AND AREAS OF LIFR FOR CIGS. WINDS VEER TO NNE/NE ON SAT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. PERIODS OF
REDUCED VSYB`S ESP SURROUNDING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BEGINNING SOMETIME SAT AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...N/NNE FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH 25 PLUS KT WINDS
OVER THE GULF STREAM GRADUALLY DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KTS
LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WITH
9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF STREAM. SCA`S FOR ALL LEGS BY 03Z
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PREVIOUS...MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE THRU MOST OF THE
DAY... SLOWLY DIMINISHING N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS THE POST FRONTAL
HI PRES RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND
6-8FT OFFSHORE...UP TO 9FT IN THE GULF STREAM DUE TO THE OPPOSING
NRLY BREEZE/SRLY CURRENT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/ULRICH



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