Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 050127
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
826 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016
A warm sector has firmly become established over the FL peninsula
as increasing SE flow has increased the fetch of moisture across the
area. It is expected that some lower stratus cigs will develop
early Monday along with a few showers affecting the Treasure and
Space Coasts. Rain chances should remain confined largely to the
Atlantic waters as veering flow transports marine showers to the
coast. The forecast remains in good shape at this time.
Monday...Shift in the mid/upper level pattern begins as low
pressure develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and provides a
deepening south flow over the Peninsula. A stout uptick in available
moisture is advertised by the models with PWATs increasing to as
high as 1.6 - 1.8" by the end of the day. Despite the impressive
moistening, mid/upper level ridge appears to hold tight through
much of the day, suggesting that despite an uptick in shower
chances in the afternoon, thunder chances should remain quite low.
A warm and noticeably more humid afternoon on tap with
temperatures topping out in the low 80s most areas.
Mon Night-Tue...A significant gathering/concentrating of higher PWAT
air will take place over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico in advance
of and along an approaching frontal system. The GFS locates the
associated surface low pressure center over TN first thing Tue morn
on a general path toward the Northeast U.S. as the current surface
high pressure gets pushed seaward while shunted southeastward. This
will place the FL Peninsula in the warm/moist sector and primed for
increasing clouds/rain/storm chances for Tue. Assistance will come
from a dampening upper trough transitioning toward the Mid-Atlantic
states. Weak impulses will exist in said upper flow, but the more
significant vorticity will remain well north of the forecast area.
More so, the greatest jet stream energy will remain to the north,
but speeds approaching 100 kts will still clip northern FL. Dynamic
and thermodynamic ingredients combine for MRGL-SLGT Risk for severe
storms for the panhandle by Tue morning, leaving a risk for general
thunderstorms into Central Florida. This will be the best mention of
thunder in the forecast in awhile. Temps will bottom out Tue morning
the L70s and spike into the L/M80s in the afternoon well-above
climo. Pops 30-40 percent north to 20-30 percent south Mon night
increasing to 40-50 percent north to 30-40 percent south on Tue
before diminishing overnight.
VFR through early Monday morning. Increasing low level moisture
and southerly flow will support a period of MVFR/IFR ceilings in
stratus after 06Z tonight. Visibility restrictions do not appear
to be as much of a concern as surface winds should remain elevated
enough to prevent widespread fog formation. Conditions will
gradually improve a few hours after sunrise Monday.
Winds will continue to veer to a more southerly direction as the
local pressure gradient supports 12-15 knots of wind. This will
produce choppy wind waves of 3 to 4 feet on the Atlantic waters.
While no headlines are in place (Caution or Advisory), boating
conditions will be less than ideal.
Monday/Monday Night...An approaching front will veer winds further
on Monday and tighten the local pressure gradient beginning Monday
night. Winds will continue to average around 15 knots through the
afternoon before increasing to 15 to 20 overnight Monday. Seas
initially 3-4 ft thru Mon evening before building to 4-5 ft
offshore late Mon night.