Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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941
FXUS62 KMLB 232015
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Low pressure broadly centered east of the
central FL coast has slowly intensified to a sub 1003mb center
while drawing away over the open Atlc. Gradient winds on the
northern and western perimeter will wrap around the west side
along the ECFL coast roughly N of Cape Canaveral into tonight and
the coastal advisory for winds and seas will remain in effect for
Volusia Co. through 7 PM. A mentionable chc of coastal showers
will remain along the NE coast with lowering chcs of measurable
pcpn past darkness. Mild temperatures in the U50s-L60s can be
expected with some areas of fog developing inland and across fog
prone locations through daybreak Fri. Some locations may see
locally dense fog for a period around daybreak.

On Fri, the day will start under some lower clouds and patchy fog,
however diminishing cloud cover and pleasantly mild conditions
will occur by early afternoon with temperatures warming into the
U70s beaches to L80s mainland with an onshore breeze.

Saturday-Sunday...Low pressure east of the area shifts rapidly
northward, as a cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and
through central Florida into Saturday night. Moisture and frontal
convergence will be limited with this boundary, so expecting a dry
frontal passage. Therefore rain chances remain out of the forecast
through the weekend. Warmer than normal highs in the low 80s
expected ahead of the front on Saturday, then becoming cooler on
Sunday with max temperatures ranging from the upper 60s along the
Volusia coast to low to mid 70s farther south and inland.

Monday-Wednesday...(Previous Discussion) Anticyclone builds over NW
Caribbean from the Yucatan to the Bahamas, resulting in a SW flow
aloft from the Baja of Mexico, across the Gulf to Florida. An upper
trough passing far to the north toward or beyond mid week may allow
a frontal zone to eventually drop into northern Florida. Until then,
a continuation of dry wx expected with a warming trend. Max temps
near 80 Monday, lower/mid 80s Tuesday and mid 80s Wednesday. Mins
rise from the 50s inland (60s Space/Treasure Coasts) Monday to the
mid to upper 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Visual rules will apply to most all locations into 07Z Friday
morning. Patchy fog and cigs nr fl 010 psbl at inland sites FM
24/08z-24/13Z. Some lower clouds MVFR conds and sct showers psbl
along the Volusia cst through 24/04z. becmg VFR areawide aft
24/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Friday...Advertised wind surge along the backside of
departing low pressure will continue winds in the 20 to 30 kt
range over the Volusia co waters into this evening. The gale
warning however will be lowered to Small Craft Advisory with this
pkg. SCA conds are forecast over the waters north of Sebastian
Inlet into early Friday then an advisory for seas will continue
beyond 20NM north of Sebastian Inlet on Friday. Swells ascd with
departing low pressure will continue to affect the coast into the
weekend.

Saturday-Sunday...Offshore winds around 5-10 knots on Saturday,
become north behind a frontal passage into Saturday night, and
increasing to 15-20 knots. This northerly surge will build seas up
to 7 feet, mainly offshore. Winds then decrease slightly as they
veer to the northeast on Sunday, but seas will remain elevated up to
6 to 7 feet over the gulf stream.

Monday...East winds veer to the southeast and increase briefly back
to 15-20 knots Monday as surface high to the north continues to work
offshore the mid-Atlantic coast. This may build back seas to 7 feet
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  78  59  81 /  20   0   0  10
MCO  63  82  60  83 /  10   0   0  10
MLB  64  80  61  82 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  61  79  60  83 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  61  83  61  80 /  10   0   0  10
SFB  62  82  60  82 /  10   0   0  10
ORL  63  82  62  82 /  10   0   0  10
FPR  60  79  59  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 AM to 4 PM EST
     Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60
     nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Weitlich



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