Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 020816
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
416 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RECENT DRY PERIOD COMING TO TEMPORAY END FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...

...INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS EACH DAY THRU MID-WEEK...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A FEW MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST REPRESENT A HINT OF GRADUAL ONSET OF MOISTURE RETURN FOR LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE TODAY THRU MID-WEEK. INITIAL CONVECTIVE SET-UP TODAY
BEGINS WITH SSE FLOW COURTESY OF W PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE
AXIS. FLOW MANAGED TO KICK-UP A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS BETWEEN
WEST PALM BEACH AND VERO BEACH. SAME FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW FOR
EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE TO STIR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR EVENTUAL
MERGER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE UP THE
KISSIMMEE RIVER TO ORLANDO/SANFORD TO LAKE GEORGE. A SW STEERING
LAYER ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY BLOWBACK ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL TAKE
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO MIX/MODIFY THE OVERALL DRY CHARACTERISTICS
OF LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...SO KEPT PEAK POPS LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...
FAVORING THE SPINE OF THE PNSLA...WITH A SKEW BACK TOWARD THE COAST
BETWEEN THE MELBOURNE AND FLAGLER BEACHES LATE. MAX TEMPS
U80S/L90S...EXCEPT M80S NEAR COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

OVERNIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD AS ADVERTISED FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE N PNSLA.
RESULTING SFC FLOW VEERS TO SSW PREPARING FOR PRE-FRONTAL POSTURE
FOR TUE. MIN TEMPS IN THE L70S.

TUE-WED...AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE ENERGETIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SE
STATES WL FEATURE INCREASING WLY FLOW AS AN APCHG WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND AFTN INSTABILITY WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LCL
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CVRG WL OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL "MARGINAL"
HAZARD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE EVENING. A UNUSUALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...PRECEDED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STORMS. THE WINDOW FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHCS AND CVRG OF
STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE EARLY WED AND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WITH
STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL UNTIL THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PSG ON WED. PSG OF THE FRONT WL BRING EVENTUAL CLEARING
AND UNUSUALLY COOLER CONDS WED NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LWR 60S.

LATE WEEK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOL EVENINGS
THU AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO
RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE MS VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO THE
EXTENDED RANGE WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEKEEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNLY BREEZY FOR SPACE/TREASURE COAST SITES TODAY.
GRADUAL INCREASE TO MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCHC-CHC CONVECTION
WITH TEMPO MVFR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ECSB NEAR THE
EAST COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VCTS INLAND SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03S.
PSBL BLOWBACK OF INLAND STORMS AFT 00Z FOR KTIX AND KDAB.

&&

.MARINE...

GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD. 3-4 FOOT SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH 4-5 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC. CHOPPY SHORT DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
EXPECTED.

SEAS AROUND 3-4 FT TUE AND INTO WED WITH HIGHER SEAS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ESP BEHIND THE PSG OF THE COLD FRONT WED. HEADLINES MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS BY WED AFTN AND INTO THU
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. CONDITIONS WL HAVE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH LARGELY HIGH PRESSURE VCTY OF THE WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TODAY WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES THE MAIN CONCERN. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CONCERN. STORMS WILL FAVOR INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST FOR
BREVARD AND VOILUSIA COUNTIES LATE.

BENEFICIAL RAINS FORECAST DURING TUE AND INTO WED WL ASSIST IN
MITIGATING FULE CONCERNS TEMPORARILY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LOW RH CONDITIONS WL RETURN AFTER THE COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY
THU WITH SUB 35 PCT RH FORECAST IN THE AFTN HOURS. A PROLONGED DRY
SPELL EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND WELL INTO INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  88  70 /  30  30  50  30
MCO  89  70  89  70 /  30  40  40  30
MLB  87  71  89  69 /  30  30  50  20
VRB  87  72  89  71 /  20  30  50  30
LEE  90  72  88  71 /  30  30  40  40
SFB  89  71  89  71 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  72  89  71 /  30  40  40  30
FPR  87  70  90  69 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....JP


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