Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KMLB 030825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE NE GOMEX WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
MIDWEST/MID SOUTH WITH AN ADJACENT FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING UP ERN
SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD. WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR AOB
10KTS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTION THAT WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS NONE OF THE THE 00Z
PENINSULA RAOBS SHOWED ANY MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70
LYR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE
DVLPS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A THIN VORT BAND POSITIONED JUST N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THAT MAY PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT A
H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS IS NOT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.

MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS A LITTLE SKETCHY AS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
ACRS THE PENINSULA ARE AOB 60PCT WITH AVG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND
7C. THE H85-H50 LYR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER WITH RH VALUES BTWN 60-
70PCT...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
DIURNAL CU FIELD ONCE IT DVLPS.

THE 03/00Z MOS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILE...THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW. THE 3KM
WRF AND HRRR MODELS BOTH HINT AT SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. WILL GO WITH A 30-20PCT NW TO SE BREAKDOWN
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PENINSULA.
PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S. OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S.

SAT-MON...POSITIVELY TILTED RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL SLIDE EWD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND LAGGING OVER THE SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SWRLY STEERING LYR FLOW TENDING TO PUSH ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF
REGIME CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS REFLECT THIS...AVERAGING 50-60 PCT WHICH IS ABOUT
10-20 PCT ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

TUE-THU..GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPARITY IN HOW MUCH MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS AND FL FROM
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARD THIS END
WHILE THE ECM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
ERN CONUS AND ERODING THE WRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A TUTT-TYPE LOW REACHING THE BAHAMAS ON WED AND
EITHER MOVING INTO SE FL (ECM) OR ACROSS THE BREADTH OF SOUTH FL
(GFS) ON THU. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT FORWARD/W-NW FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
FCST GRIDS SHOW CLIMO POPS TUE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WED-THU
HOWEVER POPS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON ONE OR BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT LOW. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WINDS: THRU 03/13Z...S/SW 2-4KTS. BTWN 03/13Z-
03/16Z...S OF KVRB-KOBE BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS...N OF KVRB-KOBE S/SW 3-
6KTS. BTWN 03/16Z-03/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG
THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 03/18Z-03/20Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S/SE 6-9KTS
CONTG THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 04/00Z-04/06Z...BCMG S/SE 2-4KTS ALL SITES.

THRU 04/12Z WX/VSBYS/CIGS...BTWN 03/16Z-04/03Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE SCT
IFR TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD TSRAS. BTWN 03/21Z-03/24Z SLGT CHC
+TSRAS VCNTY OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR W OF KSFB.

&&

.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT.

SAT-TUE...BOTH THE NWPS AND WNWAVE FLAVORS OF WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE BACK TO SUMMER-LONG BIAS OF GENERATING PEAK SEAS
AVERAGING ABOUT A FT HIGHER THAN REALITY. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS
INVOF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP PEAK WINDS
NEAR 15KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE...2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  72  90  72 /  30  30  40  30
MCO  94  73  93  74 /  30  30  60  30
MLB  94  73  90  74 /  20  20  30  30
VRB  92  72  89  73 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  93  75  93  76 /  30  30  60  30
SFB  95  73  92  73 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  94  74  92  75 /  30  30  60  30
FPR  91  73  90  72 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.