Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 010733
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
Current...Axis of Broad high pressure ridge remains across central
Florida with associated weak gradient flow from the SSE to SSW.
residual CS canopy from Tuesday`s evening convection has thinned
considerably since a little before midnight. Temps are currently in
the lower to middle 70s.
Today/Tonight..The surface ridge will remain in place across the
central peninsula with weak residual H50 troughing along the FL
east coast continuing to slowly fill and drift eastward over the
adjacent Atlantic. Resultant weak gradient flow mainly out of the
south will yield to afternoon sea and lake breeze boundaries, with
sufficient low level moisture and mean PWAT of around 1.6" to
produce low end scattered POPS, mainly inland from I-95. Anticipate
late day sea breeze collision From a little east of Lake George to
the I-4 metro corridor and the Kissimmee River. Weak steering winds
will lead to slow/erratic storm motion, generally in the form of
propagation and redevelopment along convective outflow boundaries,
especially from late afternoon into early evening.
Main storm threats will be lightning and torrential rainfall/urban
water ponding, however progged H50 temps of -8.5C to -9.0C supports
a few pulse stronger storms which could briefly approach severe
criteria for wind gusts/hail. Max/min temps near climo.
Thu-Sat...Atlantic ridge axis will remain near to just north of the
area through late week into Saturday. This will keep a relatively
light E/SE flow over the region with the sea breeze developing and
moving inland each afternoon. Overall moisture remains sufficient
for isolated to scattered shower/storm development along this
boundary mainly in the afternoon. Greatest coverage looks to remain
over the interior (south and west of Orlando) where moisture will be
greater and where late day sea breeze collision is most likely.
Steering flow will remain weak through this time frame so any storms
that do develop will have the potential to produce locally heavy
Temperatures will be near normal along the coast to above normal
inland with highs ranging from the upper 80s coastal locations to
low/mid 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will be in the low to
Sun-Wed...Trough aloft building into the eastern U.S. will drive a
front into the southeast states, pushing Atlantic ridge axis south
of the region. This will produce a more predominant SW/WSW flow that
should transport deeper moisture into the region. Models also
continue to show an area of low pressure building northeast out of
the western Caribbean and across the southern Florida peninsula into
early next week. However run-to-run model differences in timing,
location and strength of the system lends to low forecast confidence
in this feature for the time being. Regardless, rain chances look to
increase through the period with temperatures closer to normal.
.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR through around 15Z, though isold marine
SHRA developing offshore VRB-SUA could reach the coast 09Z-12Z. LCL
diurnal CU CIGS with bases near BKN030 15Z-17Z as the east coast sea
breeze forms and pushes inland. ISOLD IFR TS more likely to develop
west of DAB-SUA VCNTY, though slightly more veered flow INVOF KDAB
gives them the best chance of any coastal site. Best chance for TS
will be across the interior aerodromes 21Z-02/02Z with LCL G35KT
possible. Coverage/confidence not high enough to justify anything but
VCTS at this time.
.MARINE...Today/Tonight...Light S-SW flow AOB 10KT will give way to
an onshore sea breeze near the coast in the afternoon. Seas 1-2ft
near shore and 2-3FT well offshore.
Thu-Sun...Atlantic ridge axis will remain near to just north of the
area through Saturday and then push southward into Sunday as front
moves into the southeast United States. Winds will generally be out
of the E/SE during the day and S/SE overnight through late week into
early weekend and then become remain more southerly Sunday. Wind
speeds are expected to remain below 15 knots with seas ranging from
Steering flow will remain weak Thursday through Saturday with much
of afternoon convection remaining over land, but an increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring a greater potential for offshore
moving storms into Sunday afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
MCO 93 72 93 73 / 30 20 20 10
MLB 89 74 88 74 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 88 74 88 73 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 93 74 94 74 / 30 20 30 20
SFB 93 73 93 73 / 30 20 20 10
ORL 93 73 93 74 / 30 20 20 10
FPR 88 73 87 73 / 20 10 20 10
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX/CLIMATE....Weitlich