Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 271524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED WINDS.

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO
EAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA THEN
WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE FRONT AND 500MB FLOW PARALLEL
WHICH MEANS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...HIGHER 500MB VORTICITY AND TO THE 250MB JET AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES OF 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30
PERCENT IS GOOD. MORE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE WILL ADDRESS PRIMARILY WIND FIELDS.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY 18Z-24Z. MOST LIKELY
ADD VCTS KVRB SOUTH WHERE TSTM POTENTIAL HIGHER.

.MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 010 RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND 2 FEET AT 009 AND 5 FEET AT 010. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOYS OBS
VALIDATE CURRENT/AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER


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