Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 282056
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BE MODIFIED BY VEERING
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
START TO PUSH ONSHORE THE COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S TREASURE COAST. REMAINING
CHILLY OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK.

THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS FL. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE. LOOKS
LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED CU AND TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD/ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF NOTE
IMPACTING THE REGION WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SILENT. ONLY CHANCE WILL BE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
STREAM/LOCAL ATLANTIC AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

SAT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ITS LITTLE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO S FLORIDA...NO WITH LITTLE
TO NO RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE QUICK LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
TO THE EAST...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
LEADING TO A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
HOWEVER...POPS LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL REMOVE THEM FROM THE
FORECAST FOR SAT.

WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUN AS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL
TAP BACK INTO THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE AND BRING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND COASTAL
AREAS...THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT A FEW OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
SAT...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S SUN.

MON-TUE...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE AS PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN US ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH ITS FRONT SLIPPING INTO FLORIDA LATE ON
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ANOTHER LOW BEHIND IT...BUT
GENERALLY SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE  MINIMAL AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA WILL QUICKLY VEER WINDS
BACK ONSHORE INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S MON AND THEN
COOLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN NE TO E ON THURSDAY 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MARINE STRATOCU WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH
SCT-BKN CONDS THU ESP MLB-SUA BUT CIGS WILL BE 035-040AGL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/THU...N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVE WILL VEER TO
THE N/NE WHICH WILL DIRECTLY OPPOSE THE GULF STREAM AND MAINTAIN
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. SO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF STREAM WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NE AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS BY THU MORNING
SO WILL PROBABLY NEED A CAUTION FOR THU IN THE GULF STREAM.

FRI-SUN...WINDS VEER WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS PICK UP
TO A STEADY 15KTS BY THE EVENING AND 15-20KTS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
WINDS VEER NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST INTO SATURDAY. DRIVING SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POOR WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5-6FT IN THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  67  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  42  69  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  46  68  49  69 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  48  69  48  71 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  41  68  49  69 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  41  69  50  69 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  44  68  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  48  69  47  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....MOSES





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