Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 210852
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
452 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
...Much cooler temperatures tonight and into this weekend with lows
in the 50s...
Currently...Area of stratus/fog with localized visibilities of a
half a mile or less has developed over and west of the I-4 corridor
through Lake, Volusia, Seminole and Orange counties. Latest HRRR
shows this fog should persist and expand slightly, possibly into
northern Osceola County through sunrise, then quickly diminish into
mid morning. Will continue to monitor visibilities in this area and
dense fog becomes more widespread, may need to issue a short fused
Dense Fog Advisory for northern portions of east central Florida.
Today-Tonight...Low pressure (Invest 99L) well east of the area
will lift north-northeast today, eventually merging with a cold
front that will push off the eastern seaboard and across central
Florida into tonight. Airmass will be quite dry over the area
today with only a modest increase in moisture as front approaches,
but with winds already out of the N/NW little low level
convergence will exist for any precipitation with this boundary.
The exception will be over the coastal waters where models
indicate a few showers developing offshore into tonight as front
moves through. Highs will again be warmer than normal today, in
the mid to upper 80s, then much cooler air will filter in behind
the front overnight. Lows are forecast to drop below the 60 degree
mark over Volusia County and much of the interior for this first
time in 5 months, with min temps likely holding in the low-mid 60s
along coastal sections from Cape southward.
Sat-Sun...Behind the cold front, high pressure centered over the
lower Mississippi Valley will build eastward with a ridge axis
extending into the western Atlc. Thus, north winds on Sat will
veer to the northeast Sun. Low temps on Sunday are tricky near the
coast as 925 mb winds veer quickly to an onshore (NE) component,
while surface winds remain light NNW. Have trended cooler near the
coast (Brevard southward) but have stayed a couple/few degrees
warmer than GFS and ECMWF MOS. The coolest air since early May is
expected Sunday morning with lows dipping into the 50s over much
of the area, except low/mid 60s along the immediate coast south of
the Cape. Highs both days will be slightly below normal ranging
from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
Mon-Thu...The high pressure ridge just north of the area will
weaken Mon as a frontal boundary pushes off the eastern seaboard.
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and
east and produce an increase in E/NE flow Tue through Wed.
Increasing moisture and onshore flow will produce higher shower
chances esp near the coast Tue night and Wed with the best chance
along the Treasure coast on Wed. The stronger and more persistent
onshore flow will produce milder temperatures in the lower 80s and
noticeably warmer low temps in the mid to upper 60s, except lower
70s along the coast.
.AVIATION...IFR/localized LIFR conds will continue across much of
Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and Orange counties through daybreak
with area of stratus and fog that has formed over this region. Fog
may continue to expand slowly southward during this time, but
should quickly diminish after sunrise into mid morning.
Otherwise VFR conds are expected across the region into tonight. A
cold front will move across the area late day into tonight, but
any precipitation will be limited to the offshore waters.
Today/Tonight...Northwest winds up to 10-15 knots will continue
over the waters today with seas up to 6-7 feet away from the
coast. Winds and seas may diminish slightly for a brief period
late today, but a cold front will cross the waters tonight with a
surge in northerly winds, up to around 20 knots, expected behind
the boundary increasing seas to 7-8 feet offshore. Small Craft
Advisory for the offshore waters has been extended into tonight
for these hazardous boating conditions.
Sat-Tue...Northerly wind surge up to 20 knots behind the cold
front will continue into the first half of Saturday, keeping
boating conditions poor especially offshore and in the Gulf
Stream. Winds will veer and develop an onshore component by
Sunday while decreasing to around 15 knots. With a continued
northerly component, seas will remain choppy, especially in the
vicinity of the Gulf Stream.
Northeast flow 10-15 knots Mon-Tue with seas 3 to 4 feet.
The St. Johns River at Astor (2.85ft) remains in Minor Flood
Stage this morning. The river is forecast to fall below flood
stage (2.8 ft) today or tonight, but remain above Action Stage
(2.5ft) through this weekend.
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River will remain near
7.0ft through this weekend, keeping it in Action Stage.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 58 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 87 59 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 85 63 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 85 64 78 59 / 0 10 0 0
LEE 86 59 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 87 59 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 87 60 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 86 63 80 59 / 0 10 0 0
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-
60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.