Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 291938
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
338 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...Scattered showers and storms were exhibiting a quicker
eastward movement this afternoon, hence most should push offshore
by around sunset. Isolated pockets of instability and a few
outflow boundaries may linger through late evening and bring a
slight chance of showers or storms. The slightly increased
steering level flow may push a few showers well inland from the
Gulf of Mexico coast overnight.

FRI...Model surface theta e field shows a weak frontal boundary
stalling over the northern peninsula and the 12Z GFS continues to
show moist conditions over most of the local area. So 40-50 PoPs
with afternoon storms still looks good, except maybe 30-40 percent
coverage in the far north. An offshore wind flow will continue,
but not quite as strong, so the east coast sea breeze will develop
and push across the coastal counties at least. Temps aloft are
still forecast to be cooler than normal so there will be some
strong storms where boundary collisions are the most vigorous.

SAT-WED...The frontal boundary will slowly retreat northward as
upper low slowly lifts up to the Great Lakes and Atlantic ridge
nudges back towards the area. This will allow an east wind flow to
develop this weekend, and with no significant drying, scattered
showers and storms are forecast each day. The east flow should focus
afternoon storms over the interior and west side of the peninsula.
Highs are expected to continue to reach the upper 80s over much of
the area each day with lows generally in the lower 70s, except
moderating to the middle 70s along the coast early next week due to
developing onshore flow.

TC Matthew in the eastern Caribbean is forecast to move westward
into the central Caribbean through late week then turn northward
this weekend toward the Windward Passage/eastern Cuba. The
message is that we remain in the heart of the hurricane season.
Reliable model guidance suggests "Matthew" will lift north across
the Bahamas sometime next week. At a minimum, this would result in
breezy conditions especially at the coast with building seas/surf
and dangerous rip currents at the beaches. Beyond that, it is too
early to speculate on specific impacts to east central Florida or
their timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR conditions were occurring with scattered
showers/storms marching eastward across the peninsula.  This
activity will push offshore around 00z. A few of the storms will be
strong especially near some of the coastal terminals.

On Fri, the east coast sea breeze will move inland during the
afternoon with scattered storms forming and pushing back towards the
coast. This scenario could produce an increase in coverage and
duration of storms, along with an uptick in storm intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...Weakening frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S.
will stall over the northern peninsula.  Southwest winds will be 10-
15 knots early tonight, then weaken as the pressure gradient
diminishes. Seas will be 2-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will
continue to be an elevated threat for scattered offshore moving
storms, producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds into
early evening. Afternoon storms on Fri should form a little
farther inland, but steering level winds will bring them back to
the coast by early evening and could persist late into the
evening.

SAT-TUE...Stalled frontal boundary over the northern peninsula will
gradually lift back northward over the weekend and allow winds to
become easterly. These east winds should increase some next week as
the pressure gradient tightens with Matthew pressing northward
towards the southern Bahamas. Seas look to be 2-3 feet early Sat,
then an increasing east fetch should build seas to 3-4 feet Sunday
and 4-5 feet Mon-Tue. These wave conditions will keep the risk of
rip currents at least moderate through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  88  71  87 /  30  40  40  40
MCO  73  89  72  90 /  20  50  30  40
MLB  72  88  73  88 /  30  50  30  30
VRB  71  88  73  88 /  30  50  40  30
LEE  71  89  71  89 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  73  90  72  90 /  20  50  30  40
ORL  74  90  73  90 /  20  50  30  40
FPR  71  88  72  87 /  30  50  40  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...Lascody
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...Sedlock


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