Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 212034
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
334 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...A WET FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...A SLOW MOVING BATCH OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
STORMS IS POISED TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA HAS SHARPENED IN DEFINITION TODAY AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS UPSTREAM OVER THE GULF DRIVING CURRENT
RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN SOME FORM AS THE UPR
DISTURBANCES NEARS THE AREA.

WL KEEP MENTION OF HIGH TO WIDESPREAD POP COVERAGE IN FSCT MAINLY
ACROSS OSCEOLA AND BREVARD CO`S NWD OVERNIGHT WLONG WITH SOME ISOLD
EMBEDDED THUNDER WHERE THE HIGHER POPS EXIST ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. MEASURED RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MON MORNING OVER NORTHERNMOST SECTIONS NEAR I-4 WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE TENTH TO QUARTER FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WL BE
MILD IN THE 60S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ALONG WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO.

MON...THE WARM FRONT AND UPR FORCING IN THE FORM OF LARGE JET
FEATURE OVER THE SE STATES WL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDS PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON WL LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL CO`S MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH
LIFTING BOUNDARY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT.

TUE-WED...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED
INTO WED NIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRECEDING THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF I-4 AS EARLY AS
THE PREDAWN HOURS WED AND SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW STRONGEST 850MB WINDS WILL EXIST MAINLY
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE TO THE CAPE AS BAND MOVES THROUGH AND SPEEDS
STILL LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM 20-30% TUE UP
TO 60-70% WED.

DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS WED
WITH HIGHS NOW IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH OF
ORLANDO. HOWEVER IF THE SLOWING TREND CONTINUES AND MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

CHRISTMAS DAY-SUN...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. MORNING TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM UP INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK
AND ELONGATES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS WEATHER REMAINS DRY AND
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

THEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...LEADING TO A
MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST. THE GFS HAS A DRIER AND STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE
FRONT SLOWING IT`S SPEED AND PULLING IN MORE GULF MOISTURE FOR A
WETTER SOLUTION INTO LATE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THESE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR CONDS ALONG WITH OCNL IFR CONDS IN SHRA AND ISOLD TS WL
OCCUR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MON PRIMARILY ALG AND N OF A
LINE FM KCOF-KISM. MNLY VFR CONDS THIS EVE S OF THE LINE WITH
DETERIORATING CONDS AND LOSS OF PREVAILING VFR CONDS S TO KOBE AFT
22/04Z. PERSISTING LOW CIGS NR FL 020-030 ACROSS MUCH OF AREA
EARLY MON WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO CIG AND VSBY AFT 22/16Z FM S TO N.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE NR
THE CST AND 2 TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS NR
10 KT WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND MNLY FROM MLB
NWD INTO MONDAY.

TUE-FRI...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CROSS FLORIDA
INTO LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO
15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THEN SWITCH TO THE W/NW AS THE
BOUNDARY PASSES...REMAINING ELEVATED INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATE WEEK WITH MORE FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  79  65  80 /  80  60  30  30
MCO  63  80  64  82 /  70  50  20  30
MLB  66  80  67  82 /  40  40  20  20
VRB  65  80  66  81 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  63  78  64  81 /  80  60  30  30
SFB  63  79  64  82 /  80  60  20  30
ORL  64  79  65  81 /  70  50  20  30
FPR  63  80  66  81 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





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