Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 271343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...AXIS OF A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 00Z.

EARLY MORNING BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WAS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  SOME DECREASE IN DEW POINTS OCCURRED BEHIND THIS
PRE FRONTAL BAND...AND THE TAMPA SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.19 INCHES.
HOWEVER...STORMS WERE STREAKING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT.  THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT/MOVE AWAY IN
THE SOUTH WHILE NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER.  THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ONGOING STORMS TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ASHORE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA.  SO OUR CURRENT HIGH POPS AROUND 80S PERCENT LOOK
GOOD.

DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  STILL
THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG FOR THESE PARTS...45-50
KNOTS...SO FAST MOVING CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS A FEW MAX GUSTS 50-60 KNOTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.  LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR COIN
SIZED HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 12 CELSIUS. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTH...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FROM ABOUT THE CAPE TO OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE
COAST. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
14Z UNTIL CONVECTION AND RAIN COOLING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF
STORMS ARRIVING...16-17Z. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...HAIL AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THE STORMS WILL
END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...NORTHERN AREAS BY 22Z AND
SOUTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 00Z.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FAST MOVING STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...
CROSSING THE COAST AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE.  SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL
IN ADVANCE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR WIND GUSTS 35-45
KNOTS WITH SEVERAL CELLS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.

TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON/CRISTALDI


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