Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 200753
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY AS DEVELOPING MID-UPPER LOW SPINS
UP A SURFACE LOW EAST OF FLORIDA...

CURRENT...
SHARPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SEWD
ACROSS THE NERN GOMEX...NORTH FL AND THE SERN U.S. SEABOARD. BOARD
AREAS OF PRES FALLS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE BAHAMAS...BUT
NO CLEAR SIGN OF THE IMPENDING SFC LOW FORMING JUST YET. LOCAL 88D
MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS HAS WANED SOME WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND JUST A
FEW MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING NOW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EWD
ACROSS NORTH FL BEFORE TURNING NEWD THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE WILL
THEN OPEN UP AND EJECT OFF TO THE NE UP THE ATLC SEABOARD TONIGHT
LEAVING RESIDUAL VORT AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH-CTRL FL. BY LATE
MORNING OR MID DAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FL COAST...WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW FL. THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE CTRL OR SRN CWA. WHILE INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED TO MINIMAL...
GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SOME DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED
WITH CONTINUES DIVGT FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
AND A FEW STORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY TAPERING
OF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES MOVE AWAY.
NUDGED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL (80) FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...TAPERING
BACK TO SCT THIS EVENING...AND ISOLD LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET PAST THE LOWER 80S MOST AREAS...MAYBE
SOME M-U80S IN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS MANAGE TO THIN A LITTLE EARLY.

SUN...GFS TAKES THE LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. BEST/DEEPER MOISTURE WAS FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL TO TAMPA BAY AND SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND 2
INCHES OR MORE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER KEEPS RAIN CHANCES 30 PERCENT
NORTH AND 50 PERCENT SOUTH.  HIGHS MID 80S NORTH AND THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH STILL OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES(2 PLUS INCHES) AND MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES/500MB VORTICITY MAXES  CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THE FIRST HALF THEN ISOLATED THE SECOND HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOW TO CLEAR FLORIDA AS ILLUSTRATED
BY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 NORTH TO 2
INCHES SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX TRACKING OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR
THE DAY.

MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY RIDGES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND INTO NORTH EARLY THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE WIND FINALLY SHIFTS AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY TUE.

TUE...NO APPRECIABLE DROP IN LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES COUPLED WITH VORTICITY MAX CROSSING OVERHEAD
CENTRAL FLORIDA RAIN CHANCES STILL AROUND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR TUE.

WED-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS A
STABLE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPORT DECREASES APPRECIABLY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS
THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING WITH SOME EMBEDDED MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS...
MAINLY IN SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHRA/TS FROM ABOUT
17Z-18Z ONWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS NOTED WELL NORTH AT
41010 THIS MORNING (15-20KT AND 4-4.5FT) BUT MUCH LOWER FARTHER
SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE UPPER LIMIT
OF WINDS/SEAS AS ENE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW BACKS TO N-NW TODAY...AND
THEN AROUND TO THE W-WSW TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...LOW PRES TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER BACK ACROSS THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SWRLY FLOW LIGHTER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER.

SUN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT.

MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH MON
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS DOWN
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS TO 4 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-WED...EAST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  69  86  73 /  80  30  40  30
MCO  84  70  88  72 /  80  30  40  30
MLB  82  70  85  73 /  80  40  50  40
VRB  84  70  88  73 /  80  40  50  40
LEE  84  70  89  73 /  80  30  30  30
SFB  84  71  88  73 /  80  30  40  30
ORL  84  71  88  74 /  80  30  40  30
FPR  84  70  87  72 /  80  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/RADAR/IMPACT WX....WIMMER




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