Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

FXUS62 KMLB 230057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
857 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017


Tonight...Mid level ridge was sliding east of the area as a quite
vigorous shortwave trough was pushing across the deep south. With
this pattern and breezy southeast low level flow, would expect
scattered Atlantic showers, but some drier air has worked in above
the surface. The models show only low chances along the Treasure
Coast and see no reason to differ. Otherwise, considerable high
level debris cloudiness from eastern Gulf of Mexico convection will
overspread the area and don`t see any rain chances.

The onshore flow will keep min temps elevated again in the, mid-
upper 70s with interior sections in the lower-mid 70s.  While these
will be nearly 10 degrees above normal and make record warm lows
possible in the morning, rain cooling and loss of onshore flow by
Monday evening may ultimately prevent some of the records from
becoming established.

Mainly VFR tonight. May need VCSH for VRB/FPR/SUA for onshore moving
showers. On Monday, moist southerly flow will produce a higher
coverage of SHRA and isold TSRA, mainly in the afternoon.  Have just
gone for VCSH starting at 18z, since considerable mid-upper level
debris cloudiness will be affecting the area and inhibiting solar


Tonight-Monday...High pressure ridge will slide east as a frontal
trough pushes across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This will cause
breezy southeast winds to veer and gradually become southerly on
Mon.  Speeds look around 15 knots but gusts to around 20 knots look
probable according to the Cape Canaveral wind profilers and forecast
925mb winds.  This will create poor conditions for small craft
operation with seas up to 6 feet in the Atlantic. Exercise caution
statements will continue to be necessary for most of the waters.
Expect scattered showers and a few storms to push offshore during
the afternoon/evening.


.CLIMATE...Record warm lows for Monday.

DAB 23-Oct  74 2005
MCO 23-Oct  73 2005
SFB 23-Oct  75 2005
MLB 23-Oct  77 2007
VRB 23-Oct  77 2005
FPR 23-Oct  77 1936





Lascody/Combs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.