485
FXUS62 KMLB 211950
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages...

-Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms still possible
 over the interior through sunset.

-Temperatures increasing through mid to late week, with drier than
 normal conditions expected.

-Hotter and drier than normal conditions forecast to persist into
 the holiday weekend.

Currently-Tonight...Shower development has remained fairly limited
along the east coast sea breeze, but the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms will continue for inland areas
through sunset as the east coast sea breeze moves westward. A few
onshore moving showers may also be possible late tonight, mainly
along the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, most areas look to remain dry
into tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy, and lows
falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Despite a lighter onshore
flow, model guidance not showing much in the way of fog
development tonight, so have kept mention out of the forecast.
However, with lighter winds overnight still can`t rule out some
patchy ground fog in spots late tonight and toward daybreak
Wednesday. Settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush
fires may also cause visibility concerns along area roadways,
especially near large "Sandy Drain" wildfire, that is currently
95% contained, in southern Volusia County near Farmton.

Wednesday...Ridge aloft builds in from the west and drier airmass
building in from the east will help suppress any convective
development with the sea breeze into tomorrow. Only low end rain
chances, around 20 percent, exist across Okeechobee County and
the southern Treasure Coast for the potential for a stray shower
or storm into the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb into
mid week, with highs tomorrow ranging from the mid to upper 80s
along the coast to upper 80s and low 90s over the interior.

Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Anomalous
ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday as 500mb heights reach the
90th climatological percentile. Mid level ridging continues to
remain in place through the weekend, flattening some as a
shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged
seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday,
increasing moisture and precip chances slightly into the weekend.
However, forecast has been trending drier with PoPs 20-30 percent
on Saturday, around 20 percent on Sunday, and then only 20 percent
across the interior on Monday.

Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early
next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by
Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper
90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further
support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values
reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Tonight...Isolated showers and storms still possible over the
coastal waters into tonight. Winds will be out of the east to
northeast around 7-12 knots, with seas 3-5 feet this evening
falling to 2-4 feet overnight.

Wednesday-Saturday...(Previous Discussion) Seas of 2-3 ft are
forecast through late week, promoting favorable boating
conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10 kts veer south into Friday.
Mostly dry with the best chance for a shower or storm limited to
the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to scattered showers then
return across all waters on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mid to Late Week...(Previous Discussion) Building high pressure
will promote sensitive fire conditions across the interior
Thursday into late week. Minimum relative humidity values fall
near critical thresholds across the northwest interior Thursday,
ranging 35-40 percent. Values are then forecast to remain in the
low to mid 40s across interior counties through at least late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers have developed along the
inland-moving east coast sea breeze early this afternoon. Low
confidence in an increase in coverage or any lightning, so have
maintained a VCSH mention for terminals from MCO/ISM/TIX
northward. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Any convective
activity will diminish into this evening. Easterly flow through
the period will increase to around 10-15kts behind the sea breeze,
with lighter winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  85  70  88 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  71  90  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  73  85  72  87 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  71  88  70  88 /  20  10   0  10
LEE  71  90  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  70  90  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  71  90  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  70  87  69  88 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy