Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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441 FXUS62 KMLB 210205 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 The forecast remains on track across east central Florida through the remainder of tonight. Showers and isolated storms are forecast to continue developing across the local Atlantic waters overnight, with guidance keeping the peninsula mostly dry. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10 mph, which should keep any potential for fog development low. Skies will remain clear overnight, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 743 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions forecast through the overnight hours at all terminals. Breezy to gusty northeast winds will diminish over the next couple of hours to 5 to 10 knots out of the north-northeast. Winds will then pick back up after 15Z from the northeast, with some slight veering to out of the east-northeast as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Confidence remains low in showers and storms developing along the coast, but some guidance is hinting at showers and storms across the interior terminals as the sea breeze moves inland. As a result, VCTS is in the forecast for MCO, ISM, SFB, and LEE. Will adjust as needed. Showers and storms will likely diminish across the interior after 22Z. Winds remaining breezy between 10 to 15 knots at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Tonight...Weak frontal boundary will shift south of the Treasure Coast waters this evening, with N/NE winds up to 15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet, decreasing to 10-15 knots to the south. Small craft should exercise caution over the Volusia/Brevard County waters for these elevated winds and seas building up to 6 feet offshore. N/NE winds will diminish overnight to 5-10 knots late tonight, but poor boating conditions will continue offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties as seas up to 6 feet linger. Isolated stronger storms will have the potential to push offshore, mainly near to south of Fort Pierce Inlet late this afternoon and into this evening, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and possibly some hail. Tuesday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Northeast winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Winds weaken further into Friday to around 5-10 kts and veer to the south, with winds becoming E/SE each afternoon and evening from late week and into the holiday weekend as the sea breeze develops each day and moves inland. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening, and fall even further to around 2 ft into Friday and Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are still possible across the coastal waters on Tuesday, with coverage following a downward trend each following day through mid to late week. Potential for showers and storms then increase into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 84 70 85 / 10 30 0 10 MCO 70 88 70 90 / 10 40 0 10 MLB 72 85 72 86 / 10 30 10 10 VRB 70 87 71 88 / 10 30 10 20 LEE 69 88 71 91 / 10 30 0 10 SFB 69 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10 ORL 71 88 71 90 / 10 40 0 10 FPR 70 87 70 87 / 10 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen AVIATION...Tollefsen