Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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090 FXUS62 KMLB 271121 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 721 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 721 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions prevailing, with another generally dry day forecast. A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but confidence on timing and coverage is too low to include a VCSH/TS mention at this time. Light westerly flow this morning will back southeasterly this afternoon along the coast, as the sea breeze develops. Wind gusts up to 20kts will be possible behind the sea breeze, mainly along the Treasure Coast. The sea breeze is not forecast to make it quite as far inland as the last several days, meeting the west coast breeze east of MCO. After sunset, light winds will once again veer offshore. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Afternoon temperatures rising into the mid 90s to near 100 today, with peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. - A weak frontal boundary will approach the area on Tuesday, leading to increasing rain and storm chances. - Diurnal convection will return to east central Florida on Wednesday and is forecast to continue into the weekend. Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging will continue to extend towards the Florida peninsula, with the surface high remaining across the area. As a result, mostly dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida once again today. Isolated showers and an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, but confidence in this continues to remain low. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop, but guidance continues to keep it relatively pinned to the coast due to stronger flow aloft. Skies will remain mostly clear today, with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s to near 100 in some areas. Peak heat indices will stay between 100 to 105, so be sure to take breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building and stay hydrated today if outside for extended periods of time. Conditions will remain mostly dry across east central into the overnight hours, with shower and storm activity expected to increase across the local Atlantic waters. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s, with conditions remaining humid. Tuesday...A mid-level trough will sweep across the southeastern US, bringing a weak frontal boundary towards the Florida peninsula. Locally, moisture is forecast to increase, with PWATs reaching 1.6 to 1.9". Rain chances are forecast to increase to 40 to 50 percent across east central Florida, with the combination of the weak front and the east coast sea breeze moving inland being the two main forcing mechanisms to help get things going. Isolated storms will also be possible with this activity,and a few strong storms certainly cannot be ruled out. Instability will be plentiful across the area, with modeled SBCAPE values 1000 to 1500 J/kg and dewpoints well into the upper 60s to low 70s. Modeled DCAPE values are also impressive, but this is primarily due to a dry layer between 700 to 500 mb, which could end up being a limiting factor in storm development. Additionally, 500 mb temperatures look to sit around -9C on Tuesday. In summary, this means any storms that do develop will be capable of producing occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, heavy downpours, and even small hail. Activity will diminish into the overnight hours, as showers and storms move offshore, with the frontal boundary stalling across northern Florida. Afternoon temperatures will continue to be warm on Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices will remain between 100 to 105. Overnight conditions will remain warm and humid, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow in the mid-levels will persist from the middle of the week into the weekend, with no real dominant feature present locally at the surface outside of the decaying frontal boundary. As a result, steering and surface flow will remain light across the area, with a plume of moisture lingering locally. Temperatures will continue to climb into the 90s through the remainder of the work week, with afternoon highs only reaching the 80s this upcoming weekend. The temperature gradient between the peninsula and local Atlantic waters will continue to be enough to trigger the development of the east coast sea breeze, with light steering flow aloft allowing the sea breeze to move inland. A sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each afternoon in the extended forecast, with PoPs remaining between 20 to 50 percent. Isolated storm development will also be possible, especially as a result of the sea breeze collision. Any storms that do develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Activity will diminish each evening into the overnight hours, with continued shower and storm development possible across the local Atlantic waters. Skies will become mostly clear each night, with lows remaining in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will be present across the local Atlantic waters today with seas between 1 to 3 feet and south-southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. The east coast sea breeze will develop, causing wind to become south-southeast later this afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, with increasing rain and storm chances expected into the overnight hours. Any storms that develop tonight may be capable of producing occasional to frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Tuesday-Friday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with seas generally between1 to 3 feet and winds remaining below 15 knots. Wind direction will vary through the period, with winds becoming onshore each afternoon due to the development of the sea breeze. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast. Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, rain and storm chances will remain in the forecast across the local waters. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Locally higher seas may also be possible near stronger storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the interior will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions today. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph across the area. The heat continues, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Fire conditions will improve slightly on Tuesday due to increasing moisture, but storms and associated lightning strikes could lead to some concerns. Minimum RH values will then drop back into the 35 to 45 percent range through the remainder of the week, with some areas dropping to 30 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 95 73 93 71 / 0 10 40 20 MCO 97 75 95 73 / 0 10 40 20 MLB 94 75 92 73 / 10 10 40 30 VRB 95 74 94 72 / 10 10 40 40 LEE 94 75 94 73 / 0 10 50 10 SFB 97 74 96 73 / 0 10 50 20 ORL 97 76 95 75 / 0 10 40 20 FPR 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Leahy