Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
180 FXUS64 KMOB 291128 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 628 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Scattered to broken mid and high level clouds will stream across the TAF sites through the period. Despite these clouds expect VFR flight conditions. Winds will remain light northeasterly today, except at KJKA and KPNS near the coast where a weak sea breeze should develop turning winds back from the south for this afternoon between 5-10 kts. Winds will become light and variable this evening and remain so through tonight. /JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with an amplified ridge over the Plains and another trough over the Pacific NW. At the surface, a weak boundary has moved just off the Gulf Coast, with winds over the area from the north. The center of surface high pressure will slide eastward and through the Ohio Valley today, keeping a northerly component to the surface winds. Guidance continues to indicate a series of shortwaves moving around the base of the trough, which will provide a focus for isolated convection across our interior counties, where more forcing will be. These will be diurnally driven so any lingering storms this evening will quickly diminish after sunset. Outside of any areas of thunderstorms, highs will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s, though lower dewpoints will keep heat indices from rising into the triple digits. The upper ridge will shift eastward late tonight, moving east of the Mississippi Valley Thursday. Winds at the surface will generally remain from the east, slowly veering to the south through the end of the period. Moisture will increase slightly and isolated to scattered afternoon showers are possible once again on Thursday. Clouds will also increase through the day, with highs in the 80s. /73 && .SHORT and LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The axis of the upper ridge will move through the area on Friday as a trough swings into the Mississippi Valley. Guidance continues to keep a series of shortwaves moving through the weaker flow aloft, with diurnally driven thunderstorms expected again on Friday. The trough will move east of the Mississippi River on Saturday, while surface flow becomes southerly. This will filter an abundance of moisture into the region which will combine with the forcing associated with the trough bringing a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The trough will slowly move eastward through Sunday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected again on Sunday. The better chances for rain will remain over the northeastern portions of the area, where the forcing is a bit higher. Even still, this activity will be diurnally enhanced with the best chances of rain areawide during each afternoon, diminishing during the overnight hours with the loss of daytime heating. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week, with coverage generally remaining isolated. Temperatures through the period will be a few degrees below what we`ve observed the past couple of days, as increasing clouds and weak height falls impact the area. This will keep highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. /73 && MARINE... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A light offshore flow develops tonight then becomes southeasterly on Wednesday. A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails for Thursday through Sunday. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 70 90 69 88 70 85 69 / 10 10 20 20 30 20 50 40 Pensacola 91 73 88 71 87 72 84 71 / 0 10 10 10 20 20 40 40 Destin 90 74 88 72 86 73 84 72 / 0 0 0 10 20 20 40 30 Evergreen 91 66 88 65 87 65 87 66 / 10 10 20 20 20 20 50 40 Waynesboro 92 67 87 65 88 66 85 66 / 20 20 30 20 30 30 60 40 Camden 89 66 83 65 86 65 85 65 / 10 10 20 20 30 20 50 40 Crestview 93 65 91 65 89 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 20 40 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob