795
FXUS64 KMOB 050033
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
733 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX

A line of storms will move across the area this evening with
brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Brief reductions to IFR/MVFR
will be possible in and around thunderstorms. VFR conditions
return tonight through Wednesday morning. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

We will see a continuation of a series of impulses/shortwave energy
moving in a westerly flow aloft to aid in the trigger for mainly
diurnal convection. The next main shortwave approaching the
Mississippi River has resulted in a rather impressive MCS across
Louisiana that will advance eastward across southern Mississippi
this afternoon, and then into the northwest quadrant of our forecast
area early this evening. At this time the CAMs are showing this
system dissipating before midnight. In the meantime, the ongoing
scattered convection across southwest Alabama will continue into
early evening prior to the arrival of the weakening MCS. Low
temperatures tonight fall into the upper 60s and mid 70s.

With high temperatures Wednesday climbing into the upper 80s and
lower 90s and with an even stronger shortwave moving in from the
west, isolated to scattered showers and storms near the coast in the
morning will once again expand inland in the afternoon. With the
approach of the upper shortwave, the CAMs are showing yet another
MCS pushing across the ArkLaTex region in the morning, and moving
fairly quickly across Louisiana southern Mississippi in the
afternoon. At this time it looks like this system will advance into
the entire forecast area through the overnight hours. It does appear
that deep layer shear will be a bit stronger with this system, which
could bolster a better threat for strong to severe storms. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Similar pattern continues through the short term period, but
models do indicate the potential for a stronger shortwave aloft to
move across our area and Thursday morning. This will result in a
less diurnal pattern, with chances for showers and storms
remaining higher Wednesday night, and continuing into Thursday.
SPC just has general thunderstorms forecast for our entire area
Wednesday night, but with the strength of the shortwave energy
aloft there could again be a few strong to briefly severe storms
(especially Wednesday evening/overnight) and again Thursday
afternoon when instabilities are greatest. We will continue to
monitor for this potential. Rain chances will be lower on Thursday
night, and mainly confined to coastal locations. Lows both
Wednesday and Thursday nights will range from lower 70s inland to
middle 70s down along the coast. Highs on Thursday are expected to
be mainly in the mid to upper 80s, but a few lower 90s possible
over inland areas. DS/12


LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as an
upper trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge
persists to our west. Guidance continues to indicate drier air
moving in on Saturday in the wake of the front with PWATs briefly
falling to around an inch or less Saturday morning. While we won`t
see much relief in terms of temperatures, the limited moisture
will keep conditions mostly dry on Saturday. Highs are expected to
top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Moisture gradually
increases on Sunday as surface high pressure builds over the
eastern Gulf and southerly flow returns to the forecast. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible especially during
the afternoon hours when peak heating occurs. As we head into
next week, ensemble and most deterministic guidance suggests that
another late season front may try to move into the area as an
upper trough digs across the eastern US. Have stuck close to the
NBM for rain and storm chances early next week with coverage
remaining mostly isolated to scattered. Temperatures may cool
slightly behind this front, but only by a few degrees or so. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week
as a light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts
westerly late in the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  89  73  89  72  94  67  92 /  40  30  30  60  10  30   0  10
Pensacola   76  87  75  87  75  93  70  90 /  20  30  40  60  20  30  10  10
Destin      76  86  76  87  76  90  72  89 /  20  20  30  60  20  30  10  10
Evergreen   69  91  70  88  70  92  63  91 /  20  30  50  60  10  20   0  10
Waynesboro  71  91  70  89  69  91  64  92 /  70  50  60  40  10  10   0  10
Camden      69  90  69  87  68  89  63  89 /  30  40  60  50  10  10   0  10
Crestview   69  91  70  89  70  94  64  92 /  20  30  30  60  10  30   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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