479
FXUS64 KMOB 231000
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Currently watching and early morning MCS moving across central
Mississippi. This is expected to continue to weaken as it moves
into Alabama, but will be something to watch for this morning. For
the remainder of the period, deep layer ridging remains in place.
Subsidence under this ridge, will continue to suppress showers
and thunderstorm development across much of the area. Cannot rule
out an isolated shower or storm especially across northern area,
however most areas will remain dry with partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 80s inland to low to mid
80s along the coast this afternoon. /13



&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Mostly dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend
as upper level ridging remains centered over the southwestern
Gulf. This upper level pattern will result in a mainly zonal to at
times northwesterly flow through the weekend with a few embedded
shortwaves sliding along the northern periphery of the ridge and
over northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Down at the
surface, a high pressure remains positioned over the eastern Gulf/Florida
Peninsula and will result in a persistent onshore flow through
the weekend. With this subsident pattern in place, we expect
mostly dry conditions to continue through the weekend. The only
exception would be an isolated shower or storm over far interior
portions of the area (generally north of Highway 84) where there
could be very weak forcing as a result on the passing shortwaves.
Temperatures will be warm through the weekend with highs reaching
into the lower and middle 90s inland and the upper 80s along the
immediate coast. It will feel even warmer with heat index values
around 95-100 degrees on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Overnight
lows will be mild with temperatures falling into the lower and
middle 70s Friday and Saturday nights. The warmest overnight lows
are expected to occur Sunday night with temperatures ranging from
the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches.

The pattern will begin to change early next week as rain chances
enter back into the forecast. A longwave trough will move eastward
over the Midwest into the eastern US with the base of the trough
moving overhead and flattening the ridging aloft. At the same
time, a late season front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday. Surface high pressure that dominated over the
weekend gets pushed southeastward as this front moves into the
area and rain chances become more isolated to scattered in nature
on Monday and Monday night with isolated showers and storms on
Tuesday. Global guidance continues to indicate this front pushing
offshore on Tuesday with drier air filtering in behind it for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are also expected
behind the front and will be most noticeable during the overnight
hours. /14



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
waves near the coast due to the afternoon seabreeze. /13



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  72  88  72  90  73  89  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   84  73  86  75  87  75  87  77 /   0   0  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      82  74  84  75  86  76  85  77 /  10   0  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   88  67  90  70  93  70  93  72 /   0   0  10  10  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  89  70  92  70  94  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  10  10   0   0  10
Camden      89  68  90  70  92  70  93  71 /   0  10  10  10  10  10   0  10
Crestview   88  66  89  69  92  69  90  72 /   0   0  10   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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