044
FXUS64 KMOB 020517
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Generally VFR to MVFR ceilings prevail across the forecast area
through the rest of the night into daybreak. After daybreak, a few
showers will begin developing and ceilings lift to prevailing VFR
for much of the area. By late morning into early afternoon, a few
thunderstorms will be possible, particularly nearer the coast.
Any storms could result in temporary reduction of ceiling and
visibility as well as erratic gusty winds. Prevailing wind
direction will become southeasterly to southerly by mid to late
morning at around 5kts. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A general light south to southeast flow is expected this evening.
Appears we are in a lull in the convective activity with a blend
of MVFR/VFR cigs to start the period and only a few shra over the
forecast area. Vsby ok. Better coverage of shra/tsra is tracking
southeast over southeast LA to across the mouth of the MS. There
is potential for an isolated shra/tsra to pop up this evening,
but coverage is anticipated to remain too low to mention in the
very near term. Chances of shra/tsra trend upward during the
early to mid morning hours Sunday. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The upper-level shortwave trough, which supported the development
of this morning`s widespread convection, is beginning to push to
the east of the local area, with weak shortwave ridging building
in behind it. As the ridge moves overhead, forcing will continue
to weaken across the area. Latest radar trends show the effect
this is having on our convection, with the coverage and intensity
of showers and storms diminishing rapidly across the area over the
past few hours. Because of this, we have decided to cancel the
Flood Watch that was in effect across our coastal counties.
Throughout the evening and the early morning hours, expect this
lull in convective activity to continue, with rain chances
hovering around 20-30% across the area. Prior to sunrise, the
ridge is expected to move off to our east as another shortwave
trough pushes southeastward across our area. With forcing
returning to the area, ample moisture in place, and MLCAPE values
increasing up to 2000 J/kg by sunrise, scattered showers and
storms are expected to redevelop across the area during the
morning and linger into the afternoon. Storms should remain pulse-
like in nature, considering that deep layer shear will only
increase to around 20 knots and little, if any, low-level shear
will be present. Due to this, the overall severe threat remains
low for tomorrow, however, as is the case with pulse-type storms,
outflow boundary collisions and storms clustering together could
result in a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty
downburst winds. Additionally, given the saturated soils, any
storms that are slow- moving and are efficient rainfall producers
could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially for our
urban/low-lying areas which have already seen copious amounts of
rainfall recently.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s
along the coast. Highs tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 80s. A
High risk of rip currents will continue through the period. /96

SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Upper ridging is expected to be prevalent Monday with only
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. As the
ridge shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, there are
differences in the models regarding the timing of anticipated
upper shortwaves and impulses traversing the region in northwest
flow as a large upper trough expands from the northern Great
Plains to the northeast CONUS and strong upper ridging builds
over northern Mexico into the southwestern states. These series of
shortwaves over the forecast area throughout the week will need
to be examined in future model runs in order to derive a more
accurate PoP forecast throughout the week. For now, Tuesday and
Thursday seem to the be the best days for higher rain coverage
until a pattern shift late in the week brings a return of zonal
flow aloft and mainly dry weather conditions Friday and Saturday.
A High risk of rip currents Sunday night becomes Moderate on
Monday, and than Low Tuesday and Wednesday. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A moderate southeasterly flow today is expected to gradually
weaken to a light onshore flow by Sunday. This overall pattern is
anticipated to continue through midweek. Seas will also begin to
subside Sunday and Monday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  88  72  89  73  89  72  90 /  10  10   0  10  10  10  30  20
Pensacola   73  86  74  87  75  88  75  89 /  10  10   0  10   0  10  20  20
Destin      74  86  75  87  76  87  77  88 /  10  10   0  10   0  10  10  20
Evergreen   67  89  68  92  68  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30  10  10  30  30
Waynesboro  67  90  69  92  70  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  30  20  10  30  30
Camden      67  88  69  90  69  91  70  90 /  10  20  10  30  10  20  30  40
Crestview   67  90  67  92  68  92  69  92 /  10  20   0  20   0  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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