678
FXUS64 KMOB 131726
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Now Through Saturday...

Hot and humid conditions expected through early this week before the
pattern turns more unsettled with increasing rain chances in the
middle to latter part of the week.

A ridge aloft remains overhead through early this upcoming week,
which will lead to hot and humid conditions alongside a diurnal
pattern of isolated to scattered storms. Afternoon highs get
progressively warmer each afternoon as the high settles overhead
with mid to upper 90s expected early next week - a few spots may
even hit the century mark. Heat indices should remain below advisory
criteria today, but increasing moisture levels early next week may
spell trouble in terms of heat stress and Advisory products may be
necessary on Monday and Tuesday (depending on coverage of showers
and storms). Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week before
temperatures relax mid to late week with increasing cloud cover and
rain.

The aforementioned ridge aloft becomes less prominent as we roll
into Wednesday as an inverted trough continues to slide westward
across the northeastern Gulf. This weak trough will slowly trek
westward through the remainder of the week. Down at the surface, the
influence of the western Atlantic surface high begins to break down,
which may open the door for the potential development of a wave of
low pressure somewhere in the northern Gulf. NHC is currently
highlighting this with a 20% chance for development over the next 7
days. What`s this really mean for us? Unsettled weather. Given the
pattern, expect high rain chances regardless of whether or not
something forms and gets a name. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could
lead to flooding concerns by mid-week, but especially in the latter
part of this upcoming week. Expect several days with widespread
showers and storms. In addition to the heavy rain, the risk for rip
currents quickly increases to MODERATE on Wednesday with a HIGH risk
by Thursday. The risk will likely remain HIGH through the end of the
week, regardless of any sort of tropical mischief. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Isolated to potentially scattered convection develops through mid
afternoon then diminishes by early evening. MVFR conditions will
accompany the stronger showers and storms with VFR conditions
otherwise anticipated to prevail. A southerly to southwesterly
flow at 5-10 knots this afternoon becomes light and variable this
evening, then a northwesterly flow near 5 knots develops Monday
morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms through early next week. Winds will
follow the typical diurnal pattern through early next week before
becoming predominately southerly mid to late week. Expect a steady
increase in winds and seas in the middle to latter part of the
week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  94  75  96  75  94  73  89 /  10  30   0  40  20  70  50  90
Pensacola   77  94  79  96  78  92  76  88 /  10  30  10  40  40  80  60  90
Destin      79  94  81  95  79  91  79  89 /  10  30  10  50  50  80  60  90
Evergreen   72  96  74  97  74  95  73  90 /  20  20  10  30  20  60  30  80
Waynesboro  72  96  72  96  74  96  72  91 /  10  30   0  20  10  50  20  70
Camden      73  94  74  96  74  94  73  90 /  10  20   0  20  20  50  20  80
Crestview   73  97  75  97  74  94  73  89 /  10  30  10  60  20  80  40  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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