009
FXUS64 KMOB 280825
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

High pressure will build across the area in the wake of a cold
front that currently remains draped along the I-10 corridor. This
front is expected to drift further south through the day, before
stalling just off the coast later this evening. A broad upper
trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS will keep a
northwesterly flow pattern aloft. After a seasonably mild morning,
with lows in the mid to upper 60s, temps will warm quite a bit
during the day as mostly clear skies allow for an abundance of
heating. Thus, expect highs to climb into the lower to mid 90s
this afternoon. Fortunately, with the drier air in place, heat
indices will remain below triple digits. Clear skies will persist
overnight, with radiational cooling allowing lows to fall into
the lower 60s across our inland zones to lower 70s along the
coast. /73

&&

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A broad upper trough will maintain its hold over the eastern CONUS
through the latter half of the work week. At the surface, the
cold front that stalls just south of the Gulf Coast this evening
will remain in the vicinity of the forecast area. Guidance is
fairly consistent on bringing several shortwaves around the base
of the trough, though there are differences on the timing of the
individual waves. Regardless, the combination of the weak
shortwaves, weak convergence along the stalled boundary, and
daytime heating will allow for diurnally driven thunderstorms each
afternoon. Coverage will generally be isolated, given the weak
forcing associated with these features and slightly less moisture
to contend with thanks to the northerly flow. Temperatures through
Thursday will be near seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

Friday looks to be a bit of a transition day, as the trough over
the East Coast moves offshore as an amplified ridge slides
eastward. The axis of this ridge moves east of the area by Friday
night as another trough swings into the Mississippi Valley. Flow
aloft and at the surface quickly become more southerly, with an
abundance of moisture returning to the area by the weekend. Rain
chances will increase on Saturday as an initial shortwave moves
through the region, with another round of showers and storms
expected on Sunday as a second shortwave moves through. It likely
won`t be a total washout, but pinpointing exact timing for
showers/storms is difficult at this time. Given the rain chances
on Saturday and Sunday, temps may be slightly below normal with
highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
/73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A light diurnal flow pattern will persist today and again on
Wednesday, with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the
day. Winds will shift to the east to southeast on Thursday and a
light to moderate onshore flow is expected by the weekend. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  69  91  69  87  68  89  70 /  10   0  20  10  20  10  20  10
Pensacola   93  72  89  72  87  71  88  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10  20  10
Destin      90  73  88  72  87  72  88  74 /   0   0  10   0  10  10  20  10
Evergreen   93  65  90  64  87  64  90  65 /   0   0  10  10  10  10  20  10
Waynesboro  93  66  88  65  85  64  89  66 /  10   0  20  20  20  10  20  10
Camden      91  64  88  64  85  64  88  66 /   0   0  10  10  10  10  20  10
Crestview   95  65  93  65  90  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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