Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
501 FXUS64 KMOB 221200 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 700 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Upper level ridging will remain in place over the area through Thursday. The subsidence beneath the ridge will maintain a dry pattern with mostly clear skies and above normal warmth. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a light southeasterly flow. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 inland and low to mid 80s near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 60s inland to around 70 near the coast. /13 LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Dry and warm forecast expected through the holiday weekend with the return of showers and storms at some point early next week. Mid and upper level ridging begins to flatten into the Gulf as a series of shortwaves slide across the northern periphery of the ridge. A surface high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over the local area and eastern Gulf through the weekend. The influence of deep layer ridging should keep rain chances minimal on Saturday and Sunday with only a 15-20% POP in the afternoon and early evening hours across our northernmost counties (generally north of the Highway 84 corridor, further from the influence of the ridging). An isolated storm or two may develop on the sea breeze each afternoon Friday through Sunday, but confidence isn`t high enough to bump up the POPs at this time. Rain chances increase as we head into early next week as a potent shortwave dives across the Plains. Scattered showers and storms are possible by the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. Beyond Memorial Day, there remain some differences in how the models resolve the evolution of the shortwave and the eventual frontal passage, which ultimately impact the rain chances by Tuesday. Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be toasty as heat indices soar up to 100 with high temperatures rising into the mid to low 90s across inland communities and upper 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows only fall into the 70s. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Saturday and increases to a MODERATE by Sunday. RCMOS probabilities are indicating a high likelihood of the rip current risk increasing to a HIGH RISK early on Memorial Day. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and waves near the coast due to the afternoon seabreeze. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 68 87 71 89 72 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 84 72 85 73 86 75 88 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 73 84 74 85 76 85 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 90 65 90 67 91 70 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 10 Waynesboro 90 66 90 69 93 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 Camden 89 66 90 68 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 Crestview 89 66 89 67 89 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob