113
FXUS64 KMOB 271725
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period with
a few exceptions. Some localized MVFR ceilings will be present
early this afternoon then MVFR conditions will accompany isolated
to possibly scattered convection into the early evening mainly
along and east of I-65. Patchy fog will also be possible overnight
mainly over interior areas. Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots, a
bit stronger near the coast, diminish and switch to a light
northwesterly flow tonight as a cold front moves through. A
northerly flow around 5 knots follows for Tuesday morning. /29

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A somewhat broad upper trof pattern over the eastern half of the
CONUS amplifies through Tuesday, and embedded within this pattern a
series of shortwaves progress across the forecast region today into
the evening hours, along with a second set advancing into the area
on Tuesday. The remnants of an increasingly diffuse outflow
boundary appears to be located near the I-65 corridor based on
current radar and satellite loop, and a weak frontal boundary
extends from the Arkansas/Louisiana border into northern Alabama.
It`s not clear if whatever remains of the remnants of the outflow
boundary can manage to lead to any convective initiation as the first
series of shortwaves progress across the forecast region through
this evening. What looks more likely is that development will
occur along the frontal boundary which progresses into interior
portions of the forecast area through the afternoon, then moves
through the remainder of the area and into the marine area
overnight. The convective trends will need to be monitored. MLCAPE
values this afternoon into the early evening ahead of the
approaching front reach 2500-3000 J/kg, potentially around 3500
J/kg. Shear values remain on the low side, with 0-3 km bulk shear
of typically 20-30 knots along with correspondingly low helicity
values. DCAPE values are currently around 800 J/kg, and there is
the potential for an increase to around 1000 J/kg, possibly even
1500, late this afternoon. The best deep layer forcing associated
with the series of shortwaves and placement of the surface
boundaries appears to generally favor the portion of the area
along and east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon, which then
wanes this evening. For the rest of this afternoon, have gone with
chance pops roughly along and east of I-65 with slight chance
pops elsewhere. Pops taper off to dry conditions areawide tonight.
SPC has a slight risk of severe storms for portions of south
central Alabama stretching roughly along I-65 into southwest
Alabama along with a marginal risk for much of the remainder of
the area. The environment looks to favor some strong storms with a
severe storm or two possible. If severe storms form, damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be primary threats. Despite another
series of shortwaves set to move across the area on Tuesday,
drier air will have flowed into the area in the wake of the
frontal boundary and have kept pops out of the forecast. Lows
tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the
coast. Highs on Tuesday mostly range from 90-95. A high risk of
rip currents is in effect through tonight, then a moderate risk
follows for Tuesday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  94  69  91  69  87  68  89 /  20  10   0  20  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   75  93  72  89  72  87  71  88 /  20   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Destin      75  90  73  88  72  87  72  88 /  20   0   0  10   0  10  10  20
Evergreen   68  93  65  90  64  87  64  90 /  40   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Waynesboro  66  93  66  88  65  85  64  89 /  10  10   0  20  20  20  10  20
Camden      66  91  64  88  64  85  64  88 /  20   0   0  10  10  10  10  20
Crestview   69  95  65  93  65  90  64  92 /  30   0   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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