680
AWUS01 KWNH 130036
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0664
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas affected...Southern CO...Central NM...Far Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130035Z - 130635Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to
gradually settle south through this evening across southern CO
down through much of central NM, and potentially into far
southwest TX. Heavy rainfall rates near areas of high terrain and
also locally into some of the normally dry washes and burn scar
locations may cause flash flooding over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR/WV suite shows shortwave
energy digging gradually south down across southern CO and into
central and northern NM. Cooling convective cloud tops are noted
across the higher terrain and into the adjacent areas away from
the mountains as a combination of relatively moist low-level
upslope flow and instability work in tandem to initiate and expand
convection.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted, and there is some
modest effective bulk shear of 20 to 30+ kts arriving in
association with stronger northwesterly mid-level flow and the
aforementioned shortwave energy dropping down over the region.

Some additional uptick in the coverage of convection is expected
this evening given the rather favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environments, and there will be sufficient moisture and
instability for some rainfall rates to reach 1 to 2 inches/hour.

Given the influence of orographics/upslope flow and some localized
cell-training concerns going through this evening, there may be
some spotty storm rainfall amounts of 2 to 3+ inches. This may
drive isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, and this will
include potential flooding impacts to the normally dry washes and
burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38080492 37340408 35690440 34210476 31860495
            31210565 31590647 32410685 33480700 35160691
            36200669 37620600