535
AWUS01 KWNH 101916
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...Ext. Southern South
Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101915Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorms in ideal environment for
training may pose spots of 2-4" and possible low-end incidents of
flash flooding through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and RAP analysis fields depict a
well defined stationary front across southern GA with tight
theta-E gradient to the north and a weaker/slightly drier area
across the FL panhandle and northern FL.  Solid insolation has
allowed temperatures into the low 90s with Tds in the low to mid
70s while CIRA LPW denotes solid stream of mid-level moisture
overlaid to support a narrow ribbon of 2-2.25" total PWATs.
Additionally, northerly flow north of the front is supporting the
FGEN/moisture convergence to develop cells at along the boundary;
while a subtle shortwave in central GA will continue to support
unidirectional flow through S GA, while also supporting weak
confluent surface to 850mb flow across SE AL allowing for
additional upstream redevelopment.

Current EIR and RADAR show stronger development over the last hour
with increased coverage in Lee to Toombs counties with 1.5"/hr
rates starting to be estimated.  Given the SBCAPEs of 3500-4000
J/kg and the 2"+ TPW, even modest/weak flux of 5-10kts will
support 2"/hr rates and alignment should allow for training. To
compound issues, propagation vectors will also align with the
boundary and mean flow with some very small southward push with
time.  This may allow for spots of multiple rounds/hours of
duration to allow for spotty 2-4" totals.  While the area can
support rates/totals of this range for 1-3hr FFG. Grounds are very
dry in the 20-25% range through 0-40cm (about 25th percentile).
The strength of rates are harder soils may reduce infiltration and
increase run-off; so there remains some potential for isolated
incidents of flash flooding with those highest totals in best
training along this axis/frontal zone.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32688049 32388034 31898090 31258125 31078198
            31048445 31368508 31838501 31988431 32088332
            32228242 32528137