023
AWUS01 KWNH 102229
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Areas affected...Cap Rock into Rolling Plains of Northwest
Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102230Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...Deepening more efficient cells with slower cell motions
in proximity to the upper low likely to develop into a forward
propagating line with 1.75"/hr rates crossing lower FFG/recently
saturated soil conditions; pose possible scattered flash flooding
into this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite imagery suite depicts well defined
fairly symmetric closed low over central Eastern NM.  Recent RADAR
and Visible loop shows solid convective initiation with recent
uptick/rapidly cooling in the eastern quadrant of the low. Solid
insolation and increased southeasterly low level inflow of
15-20kts has provided sufficient convergence of increased pocket
of 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE air at the nose of enhanced moisture q-axis
that lays out through the Red River Valley (and south) with 1.5"
TPW starting to reach west of 100W.  As such, rainfall efficiency
will start to increase from 1.5"/hr to 1.75" over the next few
hours.  Initially, cell motions will be dominated by weak steering
near the upper-low allowing for increased duration. Eventually,
weak cold pools and southeast propagation from veering low level
inflow will increase cell motions to the south-southeast.

Still spots of 2-3" are probable over areas that received heavy
rainfall last evening into this morning.  As such NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40 relative soil moisture values are dotted above 60% through
the CAP Rock into Northwest Texas.  FFG values of 1-1.5/1hr and
1.5-2"/3hr have a modestly high probability to be exceeded with
the stronger cells, though forward cell motions will reduced
totals to 1-2" as they approach the most compromised soil
conditions along and east of 100W.  As such, confidence of flash
flooding is not very high but enough to suggest possible scattered
instances through the late evening into early overnight period.
Points further south into the northern Permian Basin are not as
saturated but may have stronger perhaps rotating cells capable of
more intense short-term rates, but still may not exceed the higher
FFG.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34660260 34660136 34249976 33319928 32589968
            32360055 32500185 32910264 33570300 34360296