786
AWUS01 KWNH 032332
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-040530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
732 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...southern Arkansas, north/northeast Texas,
northern/central Louisiana, western Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032330Z - 040530Z

Summary...Rain rates are increasing from the ArkLaTex into
southern Arkansas, where 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were noted.  Flash
flooding is likely across the discussion area through 05Z.

Discussion...Convective intensity has increased from northeast
Texas into southwestern Arkansas over the past couple hours.
Multiple cell mergers and localized training/backbuilding has
fostered areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates especially in far
southwestern Arkansas.  The storms are focused on the leading edge
of a mature MCS that has made southeastward progress into the
discussion area and interacted with extreme instability (~4000
J/kg MLCAPE) and appreciable deep shear for modest organization
despite storms being mainly outflow dominant.  Westerly shear
aloft was allowing for intense individual cores to migrate
eastward and train, although southward movement of the outflow was
allowing for a slow southward translation of the complex toward
the I-20 corridor in Texas/northern Louisiana.  Indications are
that this line will reach I-20 in the next hour, with continued
training/mergers promoting several areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates.  Furthermore, the complex should reach areas of
east-central Texas and west-central Louisiana that received
copious rainfall yesterday (2-6 inches from Shreveport southward
through Lufkin/Natchitoches).  Wet soils and lowered FFG
thresholds (in the 1-2 inch/hr range) should be easily exceeded,
and flash flooding (perhaps locally significant) should occur
given the environment and scenario.  Although flash flood
potential exists across the entire discussion area, the greatest
concern exists in areas from Tyler to Shreveport to Natchitoches
to Lufkin.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34659194 34249063 33248980 32268990 31379096
            30989440 31469624 32789709 33229641 33359529
            33699374 34439265