723
AWUS01 KWNH 051631
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0400
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Far Southern OH...Southwest WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051630Z - 052130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered developing cells capable of 1.75"/hr rates
crossing complex terrain with similar 1hr FFG suggests scattered
incidents of localized flash flooding may be possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts subtle shortwave/old MCVs
moving through the southeast quadrant of the approaching larger
scale trough.  The leading tighter wave is crossing N WV while a
more elongated/sheared (NNW to SSE) wave is along the central
TN/KY border lifting east-northeast; providing subtle but
sufficient DPVA for broad scale ascent downstream across the area
of concern.  Subsidence in the wake of the prior has also led to
prolonged insolation to support increased low level temperatures
and building of SBCAPE, especially as anomalous moisture has
remained along the Cumberland Plateau with Tds even into the low
70s in spots.  As mentioned, SBCAPEs to 2500 J/kg and total deep
layer moisture to 1.75" Pwats and the weak forcing from the
approaching waves has seen widely scattered showers recently
strengthen in intensity and coverage across E KY.

Given parameters 1.5-1.75"/hr rates can be expected, though mean
cell motions are moving at 20-25kts, so more is needed to allow
for excessive totals.  This comes in the form of that favorable
orientation to the deep mean layer steering flow with upstream
inflow at 850mb of 25-30kts while residing in a col of 500-1000
thickness suggesting weak propagation vectors.  This is likely to
come in the form of back-building for cells upstream allowing for
some repeating/training to increase duration of rainfall.  As such
scattered streaks of 1.5-2.5" totals may be possible in the area
of concern. Given the complex terrain and harder ground
conditions/limited soil, FFG values of 1-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hr
exist in the area of concern suggesting localized widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding may become increasingly possible as
cells continue to develop expand through the afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39308139 39058079 38218082 37708156 37228260
            36638412 37278478 37898511 38478471 38858360
            39208224