976
AWUS01 KWNH 131859
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-140058-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0673
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern CO...Much of Central and Eastern
NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131858Z - 140058Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
gradually expand in coverage across the higher terrain of far
southern CO down through central NM and into southwest TX.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible
which will include concerns to the normally dry washes and any
burn scar locations.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-W Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite
imagery shows convective intiation taking place across far
southern CO and north-central NM involving the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains. The airmass continues to destabilize across the region
with strong diurnal heating near the eastern slopes of the
terrain, with MLCAPE values across eastern NM and southwest TX on
the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. Moist low-level east to southeast
flow will continue through the afternoon hours and this will
contribute to a favorable upslope flow pattern for convection to
develop and expand over the terrain going through the afternoon
hours.

ML-LightningCast data is showing a likelihood for convective
initiation soon farther south across the broader Sangre De Cristo
Range, and also across the Sacramento Mountains. The convective
threat to the Sacramento Mountains in south-central NM and also
the Davis Mountains of southwest TX for this afternoon will also
have some support from a slow-moving shortwave impulse which is
showing up in the GOES WV satellite imagery.

PWs are near normal for this time of the year, but with strong
instability pooling near the terrain and also orographically
focused lift/upslope flow, heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
developing and expanding in coverage over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will be expected with the
stronger storms. However, with some concerns for slow cell-motions
and terrain-anchored convection, some 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
amounts will be possible by late this afternoon.

These rains will drive a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding, which will include potential impacts to the
normally dry washes, and especially any burn scar locations. This
will include the highly sensitive Sacramento Mountain burn scar
complex made up of the Blue-2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn
areas. Also, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cooks Peak burn scar
areas in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains may be impacted.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37890573 37740467 36720390 34260364 31950395
            31170464 31220581 31860651 32990697 34930725
            36940681