


Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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976 AWUS01 KWNH 131859 FFGMPD TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-140058- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0673 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...Far Southern CO...Much of Central and Eastern NM...Southwest TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131858Z - 140058Z SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and gradually expand in coverage across the higher terrain of far southern CO down through central NM and into southwest TX. Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible which will include concerns to the normally dry washes and any burn scar locations. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-W Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery shows convective intiation taking place across far southern CO and north-central NM involving the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. The airmass continues to destabilize across the region with strong diurnal heating near the eastern slopes of the terrain, with MLCAPE values across eastern NM and southwest TX on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. Moist low-level east to southeast flow will continue through the afternoon hours and this will contribute to a favorable upslope flow pattern for convection to develop and expand over the terrain going through the afternoon hours. ML-LightningCast data is showing a likelihood for convective initiation soon farther south across the broader Sangre De Cristo Range, and also across the Sacramento Mountains. The convective threat to the Sacramento Mountains in south-central NM and also the Davis Mountains of southwest TX for this afternoon will also have some support from a slow-moving shortwave impulse which is showing up in the GOES WV satellite imagery. PWs are near normal for this time of the year, but with strong instability pooling near the terrain and also orographically focused lift/upslope flow, heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and expanding in coverage over the next several hours. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will be expected with the stronger storms. However, with some concerns for slow cell-motions and terrain-anchored convection, some 2 to 3+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible by late this afternoon. These rains will drive a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, which will include potential impacts to the normally dry washes, and especially any burn scar locations. This will include the highly sensitive Sacramento Mountain burn scar complex made up of the Blue-2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn areas. Also, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cooks Peak burn scar areas in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains may be impacted. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37890573 37740467 36720390 34260364 31950395 31170464 31220581 31860651 32990697 34930725 36940681