142
AWUS01 KWNH 031722
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031719Z - 032315Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
downstream of twin shortwaves moving northward across West Texas.
Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are possible at times, leading
to rainfall of 2-3" with locally as much as 5". Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this afternoon indicates dual
shortwaves moving northward across West Texas. The first is
associated with an MCV which is remnant from an impressive MCS
that lifted out of Coahuila, Mexico earlier this morning, while a
secondary shortwave is moving over the southern Permian Basin.
Both of these impulses are contributing impressive ascent into
robust thermodynamics to support heavy rainfall rates. These
thermodynamics are characterized by PWs that are above the 95th
percentile within the 700-500mb and 500-300mb layer according to
CIRA, overlapped with MLCAPE that is slowly climbing towards 1000
J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. Rainfall rates within
ongoing convection have been estimated above 1.5"/hr according to
KMAF WSR-88D, and morning rainfall today has already been measured
at 2-4" in some areas via MRMS and local mesonet observations.

Flash flooding is currently ongoing across the region, and the
slow poleward advance of these shortwaves will maintain or
increase flash flooding potential through the afternoon. These
shortwaves are going to continue to move northward as the region
remains pinched between a trough approaching from the west and a
ridge positioned to the east. Not only will this push these
shortwaves northward to continue lift, but will also draw more
impressive thermodynamics northward to support heavy rainfall.
Although CAMs are struggling to resolve current activity, both the
REFS and HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"/hr rates rise to
20-40%, while the HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulations reach as much
as 0.75", indicating at least brief 3"/hr rates. With mean 0-6km
winds remaining light from the S/SW at 5-10 kts, and Corfidi
vectors pointing back into the better moisture (anti-parallel to
the mean wind), this will support short term training of these
rates leading to rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts
approaching 5" possible.

In addition to the rain which has already occurred this morning,
0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT is above the 75th percentile across
much of the area, suggesting the soils are vulnerable to rapid
runoff. This is additionally reflected by 3-hr FFG that is as low
as 1.5"/3hrs. This indicates that any of these more intense rain
rates, especially during periods of training, could overwhelm the
soils leading to instances of flash flooding.

Weiss/Shieh

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34630194 34490144 34310114 33930073 33680050
            33100026 32540024 32020039 31480056 31310063
            30890081 30350084 30020105 29630161 29710236
            29850336 29680384 30080420 30780433 31270424
            31440391 31440347 31680308 31860292 31970292
            31980291 32630323 33460317 34370301 34500256
            34580250