350
AWUS01 KWNH 021554
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 AM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma through North Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021552Z - 022145Z

SUMMARY...Continued development of training supercells is
anticipated along and ahead of an MCV tracking southeast over the
SW corner of Oklahoma late this morning. This risk for repeating
activity is expected to shift southeast through the afternoon,
eventually crossing the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. Localized
flash flooding is possible through at least 21Z.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is evident in regional radar over the SW
corner of OK at 1530Z which is a result of the multi-cell cluster
that came from the eastern TX Panhandle earlier. Cells have
developed ahead of this MCV over NW TX and are moving north into
southern OK with activity around the MCV causing repeating heavy
rain as it tracks southeast. Hourly rainfall is estimated from
KFDR to be in the 2" range in Jackson Co (though hail was present
in this back-building supercell). Additional rainfall from the MCV
activity could lead to 3" in 3 hrs which is above the 3hr FFG
which is generally around 2.5".

Southerly 850mb flow of 20 to 25kt per regional VWPs will continue
to provide moisture as noted by a tongue of 1.6" PW extending
north over NW TX into SW OK in the RAP mesoanalysis. Ample
instability is present with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg with only
minimal capping. These ingredients should allow this pattern to
continue as it expands southeast well into or through this
afternoon despite 12Z CAMs and recent HRRRs having a poor
depiction of current activity and a general lack of afternoon QPF.
Given the sensitivity of North Texas which has seen 3 to 6x its
normal rainfall over the past week, at least a localized flash
flood risk is anticipated through the afternoon hours.

Areas over southern OK have seen much less rainfall in the past
week and have a higher 3hr FFG (generally around 3").
Extrapolation of the radar mosaic and the RAP forecast for the
instability gradient to remain over southern OK suggests the
northern extent of the heavy activity remains just south of the
OKC metro. However, this track will continue to be evaluated
through this afternoon.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35229813 34679635 32319614 32409856 33279986
            34389997 34879967 35099926