022
AWUS01 KWNH 280151
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-280750-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...Southeast AL...Southern GA...FL Panhandle into
Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280150Z - 280750Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy
rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3"/hour will continue over the next
several hours across portions of the Southeast and may maintain an
isolated threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
band of very heavy showers and thunderstorms dropping gradually
southeastward down across southeast AL and southern GA which will
be moving into the FL Panhandle region and adjacent areas of the
FL Big Bend and possible northeast FL over the next few hours.
Some of the cells over southern GA in particular have been rather
slow-moving and producing some very heavy hourly rates.

WV satellite imagery shows a fair amount of shortwave energy
advancing east toward the region from the central Gulf Coast
region, and this energy will be interacting with a very moist and
unstable airmass pooled across the northeast Gulf Coast region and
areas inland across the FL Panhandle and south-central GA. MLCAPE
values are locally over 3000 J/kg with PWs close 2 inches.

The HRRR guidance has been suggesting a continued convective
threat over the several hours with locally high rainfall rate
potential. Generally the convective threat will settle down toward
the Gulf Coast with some outflow boundary evolution facilitating
this southward advance. Some localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall
totals will be possible, and there will be some localized
repeating of cells potentially over southern GA and for parts of
the FL Panhandle east into northeast FL that may yield these
heavier amounts.

An isolated instance or two of flash flooding will be possible
where some of these stronger cells and heavier rainfall rates tend
to repeat over the same area, and generally the more urbanized
areas will be at greatest risk of runoff problems.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31718454 31718377 31518314 31168196 30798141
            30168148 29818203 29758324 29918415 29688499
            30168568 30568581 30998571 31468522