144
AWUS01 KWNH 100405
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-100804-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0416
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Areas affected...southern/eastern Colorado, far northeastern New
Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100404Z - 100804Z

Summary...Slow-moving downpours continue to produce 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates at times.  An attendant flash flood risk should exist
with this activity through at least 07Z.

Discussion...Low-level upslope across eastern Colorado continues
to support deep convective development along and east of the I-25
corridor across the discussion area.  The upslope regime has
fostered convective development that has formed nearly stationary
cold pools to focus heavy rainfall for multiple hours at times.
The cells are in a marginally unstable, but moist environment
(~500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.1 inch PW values).  Additionally,
mid-level flow was weak/negligible, resulting in slow cell
movement governed mainly by propagation and development of cold
pools on the mesoscale.  Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr have been
noted with the most persistent activity, which has locally
exceeded FFG thresholds at times and contributed to excessive
runoff especially near Pueblo this evening.

The ongoing scenario for flash flooding should continue for at
least a few hours, although duration beyond about 07Z is a bit
uncertain.  Widespread convective overturning may result in a
gradual decrease in opportunity for surface-based convection
through the night, but low-level southeasterly flow (around 20
knots at 850mb) should continue to aid in forcing convective
development especially along north-south oriented outflow
boundaries through the night.  Some degree of surface-based
buoyancy may also persist ahead of the convection as well given
low-level trajectories.  Flash flooding should remain possible
through at least 07Z in this regime.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39240469 39110340 37970280 36710324 36500471
            37620535 38960507