832
AWUS01 KWNH 060053
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...northern portions of MD...much of
DE...southeastern PA...surrounding portions of NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060050Z - 060500Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr to continue for several more
hours, shifting northeast from the Baltimore metro to the Philly
metro. Localized instances of flash flooding are likely to
continue (and some may be locally significant). Additional
localized totals of 2-4" are possible.

Discussion...A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms is
progressing slowly northeastward across northern portions of MD,
into DE, southeastern PA, and surrounding portions of NJ. This
activity includes some embedded supercells along the southwestern
flank of the cluster of storms, and these embedded supercells are
producing rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr. The mesoscale environment is
characterized by SB CAPE of 750-1250 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 1.8-2.0" (near record values, per SPC sounding
climatology), and effective bulk shear of 20-30 kts.

Convection will continue to track generally towards the northeast
with the mean low- to mid-level flow (though embedded supercells
will favor a more easterly track), producing additional localized
totals of 1-3". This will likely support localized instances of
flash flooding across metropolitan areas along I-95, with the
greatest concerns for metro areas where locally significant flash
flooding is possible.

Churchill

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40927558 40777500 40237443 39617480 39417523
            39167615 39037650 39327678 39867687 40547664