Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
912 AWUS01 KWNH 110903 FFGMPD TXZ000-111332- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0421 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 503 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110902Z - 111332Z Summary...Intense rain rates of near 1-2"/hr and localized rainfall totals of 2-4" will be possible this morning as slower moving thunderstorms track across the area. This may lead to flash flooding, especially over areas that are more saturated due to recent heavy rainfall. Discussion...A lingering shortwave trough across the Texas Panhandle is noted in the latest water vapor imagery. This feature is expected to slowly move eastward over the next 3-6 hours, reaching northern Texas later today. This will provide an ehnanced zone of forcing for ascent, which is already manifesting into a line or two of deep convection early this morning. This activity is within a zone of higher moisture, characterized by PWs around 1.5". In addition, there is roughly about 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE available based on the latest mesoanalysis. There is pretty good agreement in the last few runs of the HRRR and other hi-res guidance that this activity will continue to move east and hold its intensity through at least mid to late morning with the upscale growth eventually leading to a more organized MCS before weakening toward 17-18Z. Until then, the robust deep convection in the increeasingly more moist environment will support hourly rain totals as high as 2" based on the latest HREF probabilities. Over the next 6 hours, isolated totals of 2-4" will be possible. Some of this rainfall will fall near/over areas that already saw recent heavy rainfall and have much lower flash flood guidance (1-hr as low as 1-1.5") and the expected motion/track and rainfall amounts could easiily overcome these values. As a result, some localized instances of flash flooding will be possible through the morning hours with the potential of intense rain rates and higher rainfall totals of 2-4". Taylor ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34440025 34149908 33459896 32909920 32589955 32590019 32860088 33250171 33750147 34180121