Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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097 FXUS63 KMPX 080755 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers this morning with skies clearing by the afternoon. - Warming trend next week with chances for rain Tuesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today through Monday... Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue to move from west to east this morning associated with a shortwave trough. As showers have remained scattered rather than widespread high QPF is not expected, but there could be bursts of heavier rain especially across southern Minnesota. Limited instability has generally prevented thunderstorms, but there have been some occasional lightning strikes across parts of southern Minnesota and these are also where some of the heavier rain has been occurring. Based on radar analysis this morning there are some heavier showers along the eastern and southern edge of the area of lighter rain. As temperatures rise later this morning our dry air problem that lead to a later start time will return and help bring this round of rain to an end. As we dry out later today we should see sunny skies return later this morning into the afternoon from west to east. These clear to mostly clear skies should continue into Sunday and Monday as higher pressure moves in. With 850 mb winds remaining more northerly the lack of WAA will limit heating despite the ample sun such that highs should be in the 70s. So more spring weather before the more summer like weather arrives later in the week. Tuesday through Friday... What remains clear for this period is the warm up with good ensemble agreement that it will start feeling more and more like summer as the week goes on. This means our highs in the 70s this weekend bump up to highs in the 80s by midweek. The side that remains less certain is the moisture side both in dew point/precipitable water and rain. In general there are two periods that have chances for rain and maybe thunderstorms: Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday looks like another shortwave trough, but the uncertainty here is how far south it gets. This could end up being more of a northern Minnesota into Canada type of event, but the front trailing farther south should provide at least some rain chances down here. Looking across the ensemble guidance this is reflected with areas like the Twin Cities seeing lower mean QPF with large deviations while there is higher QPF with smaller deviations over most of northern Minnesota. Yet another shortwave passes on Thursday although the spread is much higher here with more ensemble members with no QPF and more ensemble members with higher QPF. So overall very uncertain chances for rain here at this time. Late Wednesday into Thursday still looks to be the best WAA of the week. With one of these two days likely being the warmest day of the week as the upper quartile max temperatures in NBM is around 90. Despite temperatures looking more like summer the dew points do not, so heat index values remain around air temperatures. Some cooling, but not much, on Friday behind the cold front and a return to northwest flow at 850 mb. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR with mid level clouds increasing late this evening. Showers will move in overnight and will remain light with VFR likely continuing. As the showers exit early Saturday morning, FEW-SCT MVFR level clouds could follow for a few hours before clearing. Light and variable winds tonight will become northwest again Saturday. KMSP...Light showers should move in between 07-08Z tonight. However, VFR conditions are likely throughout the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...Borghoff