Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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764 FXUS63 KMPX 071949 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 249 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers likely tonight into Saturday morning. - Warming trend through mid-week with high temperatures in the 80s likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 70s so far this afternoon. Winds have remained breezy 10- 15 mph range with gusts 25-30 mph. Much more tolerable versus yesterday`s winds. Our clear skies will slowly fade under a lay of mid level cloud cover. Cloud cover will build in from SW to NE and will set the table for rain showers tonight into Saturday morning. RH values have dropped into the 30 percent range this afternoon, but fire weather concerns have been limited due to the recent wet pattern. A shortwave trough will move through tonight, providing support for rain showers across Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Most of us should see showers overnight, but rainfall totals will be light with values between a few hundredths to a quarter inch on the high end. CAMs and Ensemble guidance give support to this solution as well. There has been a downward trend in QPF amounts with this system in the HRRR and global guidance as low level dry air saps much of the moisture before it reaches the surface. PWATs aren`t too impressive either. An thunderstorm or two is possible to our SW, but 12z CAMs didn`t feature anything noteworthy, likely due to the limited moisture and instability in place. Saturday and Saturday night will be pleasant after the system exits. Clearing skies will support high temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. An increasingly rare forecast as we head into Summer. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... This week ahead will see these pleasant late Spring-like days fade away as a more Summer-like pattern builds in aloft. Temperatures start out pleasant with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s before the warmer weather ramps up by late next week. Ensemble guidance has continued to advertise a warmer look as an upper level ridge builds east into the central CONUS. High temperatures in the 80s with a few spots in the 90s appears likely by Thursday. It`s important to note that model spread increases to a significant level by this point and what evolves after is far from certain. ECMWF highlights two windows of opportunity for potential rain and thunderstorms next week. The first comes Tuesday with a shortwave system that`ll bring a swath of moisture into Upper Midwest and likely some thunderstorm potential. As this potential system exits, our ridge will build into the Upper Midwest and WAA will ramp up. Temperatures will peak Thursday afternoon in the 80s, possibly some 90s across SW MN, before a stronger shortwave moves through Thursday PM into Thursday night. Temperatures aren`t the only thing that`ll heat up mid-week. An impressive surge of moisture will settle in with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s likely. This will likely mark the end of the late-spring weather we`ve enjoyed. PWAT values around 2.0" are reflected in the ECMWF... very humid airmass coupled with temperatures in the 80s... Summertime. This system should produce thunderstorms across the region as a sfc cold front moves across the state Thursday PM. We`ll have to monitor guidance to see what exactly shakes out being over a week away though. If you have any yard work or outdoor activities you`ve been putting off, it may be beneficial to get to them before the end of next week!&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Solid VFR conditions at initialization for all sites with breezy NW winds 10-15kts gusting 15-20kts. Cloud cover will steadily increase late this afternoon through this evening and decks will lower to the 100-150 range. As the evening progresses, chances for showers will increase, so have converted the PROB30`s to TEMPO`s and prevailing groups due to the higher confidence. Smaller chances for CB/TS during the initial few hours of the rain shield, especially over southern MN so have included mention of convection there with conditions likely dropping into MVFR although IFR cannot be ruled out for either visibility or ceilings. Winds will go light/variable overnight then pick up from the north after sunrise as conditions improve back to VFR and the rain shifts off to the east. KMSP...VFR conditions through the afternoon push with breezy NW winds gradually diminishing. Upper level ceilings expected late afternoon with ceilings lowering going through the evening hours. Light rain expected prior to midnight with rain then continuing through the overnight hours. There is a small window of having CB/TS overnight as CAMs do show modest low level jetting and residual instability but any storms will be quite weak and short-lived. Ceilings will still drop into MVFR range near sunrise and remain there through late Saturday morning before improvement to VFR occurs around noon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...JPC