801
FXUS63 KMPX 122346
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy today with strong to severe thunderstorms expected
this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are  possible.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected to end the
week with rain returning Saturday through early Sunday.

- Chances for precipitation along with warmer temperatures will
  persist through early next week.&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to make their way gradually
to the east this afternoon. Visible satellite showing much
clearer skies across much of western and northern MN as compared
to western WI. Thus, nudged down MaxT mainly across western WI
due to ongoing cloud cover. Agitated cu has already began to
redevelop across western MN and is expected to continue growing
in coverage through this afternoon. Across southern and
southwestern MN, observations sites are reporting breezy
conditions with gusts consisting of 20-30 mph. Even more
noticeable, is the strength of a SW`ly LLJ which is forcing
temperatures to rebound quickly into the upper 70s, upper 80s,
and even a couple of 90s. Meanwhile in the upper-levels, zonal
flow with a 120kt upper-level jetstreak extends from Montana all
the way to the Great Lakes region allowing for plenty of
divergence aloft. Closer to the surface, low pressure continues
to skirt across the MN/CAN border to which remains our primary
driver for additional rounds of convection this afternoon.

A cold front associated with the low pressure will proceed through
MN/WI as we progress through the remainder of this afternoon and
evening. Instability will increase across western MN early this
afternoon to values between 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and effective bulk
shear between 40-50 kts. Convective redevelopment is forecast
to begin as early as 3 PM but looking more likely near 5 PM
onward. As of now, all storm hazard types are in play although
the more favorable environment for tornadoes looks to be focused
more over north- central and northeastern MN given the 50-60kts
of effective shear. As development does occur, storm mode
should begin as supercellular providing the tornado/hail threats
and then congealing into QLCS line with potential bowing
segments providing the damaging wind threat. Although one
concern though we have is the results from recent CAMS. The HRRR
has been trending less convection coverage except for a few
isolated cells across western MN and central MN as well as
delaying more widespread redevelopment later and across
southeastern MN whereas the Nam3k favors a more widespread
QLCS.

Conditions will begin to improve as we move into Thursday and
Friday. The aforementioned low pressure will vacate east while
ridging builds over the western CONUS. Skies will clear out by
Thursday afternoon with forecasted highs around the 80 degree
mark and with Td`s in the 50s, conditions will likely not feel
as sticky as compared to today. This weekend into early next
week looks to be more wet than dry. A broad troughing pattern to
our west will lag in progression and eject multiple shortwaves
across the northern plains. As for QPF, the Weather Prediction
Center QPF forecast consists much of central MN and western WI
could see at least an 1" if not more of rainfall. Portions of
southeastern MN could sneak over the 2" mark by the start of
next week. Temperatures during this time will fluctuate between
the upper 70s to mid/upper-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A few strong to severe storms have developed early this evening
in central Minnesota. They continue to move into a favorable
environment to sustain themselves. The storms will move eastward
over the next few hours, with RWF and MKT being the most likely
sites to miss the action. We will clear out shortly after
midnight in Wisconsin with light northwest winds.

KMSP...The window for storms looks to be between 03-05z, with
the possibility for development ahead of that timeframe, but
lesser confidence on that. These storms will likely lead to
MVFR/IFR conditions and could be severe.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind VRBL at 5 kts.
SAT...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...PV