743
FXUS63 KMPX 031759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today...Rain ending this morning across MN, with afternoon
  redevelopment across western WI. The risk for severe weather
  is low.

- Tuesday...Widespread rain is likely. The severe weather risk
  is unchanged (Marginal, 1 out of 5). Pockets of heavy rain
  possible, mainly eastern MN and western WI.

- Wednesday into Monday...Breezy and cooler weather expected
  Wednesday into next weekend, with occasional chances for rain.
  The risk for severe weather or heavy rain is very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

TODAY...Early morning satellite and radar imagery showed
widespread convection across the Upper Midwest, with a few
cooler cloud tops associated with stronger updraft cores.
Overall these were typical thunderstorms, producing locally
heavy rain and wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A broad upper level
trough with warm air advection ahead of it was the driving force
behind these storms, and this is forecast to move eastward later
today. It should clear Minnesota by late morning, but could see
some redevelopment across western Wisconsin into the afternoon.
Currently just have smaller chances for precipitation (20 to 30
percent) so wouldn`t be surprised if these are increased with
the next forecast update. A few of these storms later today
could produce locally heavy rainfall, but the should be
scattered in nature, so the flooding risk is low for today. The
severe risk is even lower, as both shear and instability are
marginal.

TUESDAY...There was no change to the severe weather outlook
across the region, as a Marginal Risk remains in place. The
shortwave trough is strong, so expect a lot of forcing and
widespread convection. A quick look at the forecast soundings
show a fairly linear shear profile. There is some veering in the
0-1km layer. Forecast guidance suggests a large area of 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the strength of the forcing and linear
shear profile, expect storms to develop quickly with a lot of
interference. The 06Z HRRR supports this, but there is a small
window shortly after initiation where few cells have some
updraft helicity swaths. So although the overall severe weather
set up is low, the potential is there for a few quick spinups.
Meanwhile, the recent rains have saturated the soils, so any
training thunderstorms could lead to pockets of heavy rain.
Overall the system is fairly progressive, but there is a slight
risk for excessive rain across eastern MN and western WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Slightly cooler weather will follow
the rest of the week and into next weekend as west/northwest
winds develop. It will be breezy, with steady winds around 20
mph, and gusts near 30 mph for Wednesday through Friday, before
the winds gradually diminish into the weekend as high pressure
settles across the region. One change to the forecast was to
increase rain chances along and north of I-94 for Wednesday
afternoon. The cold air advection, with ample boundary layer
moisture should support widespread afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms. Freezing levels are low, so could see some small
hail mixed in as well with the stronger updrafts. Other than
that, the potential for heavy rain or severe weather is very low
from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Main aviation focus through early afternoon will be the
potential for isolated to scattered showers & storms in far
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Opted to keep the MSP
TAF dry in collaboration with ZMP CWSU, as the latest hi-res
data has pointed towards locations east of the terminal for the
best chance of afternoon convection. Added in vicinity
showers/thunder at RNH and EAU this afternoon, as confidence in
scattered convection is growing, however confidence on impacts
to each terminal remains on the lower side. Elsewhere, lingering
MVFR cigs will clear and VFR conditions with light winds will
prevail overnight. Next weather system will move in from the
west starting late Tuesday morning, with widespread -TSRA
expected just beyond the end of the 18z TAF period.

KMSP...Keeping a close eye on the satellite/radar images this
afternoon for a brief window of potential showers or storms.
Any activity should move east of the terminal in short order,
with quiet weather and light winds through the overnight. Winds
increase out of the south Tuesday morning ahead a likely period
of rain and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. A few storms may
be strong to severe.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc SHRA. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G35 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Strus