Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
558 FNUS73 KMPX 231309 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Minowa WMA...MN DNR National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 809 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... For the Minowa WMA fire, southerly winds at ignition between 5-10 mph will increase to 10-15 mph by late morning with gusts near 20 mph. RH values are in the upper 60s and low 70s this morning and will fall between 40-45 percent this afternoon. Precipitation chances are low today, but showers and thunderstorms will become likely overnight. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 78. RH..................72 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise South winds 10 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /17600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /115200 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (121300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............63 68 71 73 74 75 76 77 77 76 74 71 RH..............72 61 53 48 46 43 42 40 39 40 43 47 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT wind spd..10 12 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 15 20 FT wind gust.16 18 20 20 22 23 24 25 25 25 24 22 Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.9 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.0 3.4 0.9 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.18 18 20 22 23 23 24 23 26 28 28 20 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and chance of thunderstorms overnight. Temperature.........Min 58. RH..................Max 96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (81900 knot-ft) decreasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (9400 knot-ft) late in the night early in the evening. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 20 to 28 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 68. RH..................Min 54 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 17 mph shifting to the west 21 to 22 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (108300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 26 mph shifting to the west 26 to 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Strus Requested by...Chad August Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414994.0/MPX .DELDT 05/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Chad.august@state.mn.us