310
FNUS73 KMPX 231317
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for WOB_Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
817 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the WOB_Rx fire, light winds out of the south at ignition
will increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon. RH values will be in
the upper 50s and low 60s at ignition and are forecast to fall
between 40-45 percent this afternoon. Precipitation chances are
low today, but showers and thunderstorms will become likely
overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /17000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /82300 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66  69  71  73  74  75  76  76  74  73  70  66
RH..............63  57  53  48  46  43  43  43  48  51  59  68
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   5   6   6   6   7   7   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.9   10  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 3.0 5.5 6.3 6.0 6.2 5.9 4.7 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  S
Transp wind spd.10  14  16  15  15  15  16  16  15  14  13  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the morning and early afternoon, then gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (91200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 22 mph shifting to the southwest 21
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Nathan Renk
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414995.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nate.Renk@state.mn.us