Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
395
FNUS73 KMPX 171203
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Regal Meadow Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Stray showers are already done this morning, skies will mostly clear out,
allowing temperatures to make a run into the upper 80s. This could allow
RH values to drop as low as the upper 20s by this afternoon. Winds will
be light this morning, but will pick up in strength this afternoon out of
the south, with gusts up to 15-20 mph possible at times.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Max 85.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
South winds 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /22000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /110200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7300 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 6.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............68 72 77 79 82 83 84 85 84 84 80 75
RH..............63 55 48 42 38 34 32 31 34 36 40 49
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 10
20 FT wind gust.16 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 16 17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.2 2.5 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.3 7.2 6.9 2.2 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S SW S S SW S SW S S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 15 14 15 15 16 17 17 20 17 17 18
Haines index....6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 65.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (117800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to good (33500 knot-ft) late in the
night decreasing to fair (13600 knot-ft) early
in the evening decreasing to poor (7900
knot-ft) late in the night early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
west 15 to 20 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (100400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (93800
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 23 mph shifting to the west 22
to 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Griesinger
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414493.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org