Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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580 FXUS63 KMQT 301718 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 118 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming up through early next week. - A more unsettled pattern returns on Friday, continuing into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Shortwave ridging at midlevels is located along the Upper Mississippi into Ontario, between troughing over the northern Rockies and Northeastern US. This configuration is ideal for subsidence over the local area with high pressure centered near the Door Peninsula. A dry airmass was sampled by the 12Z KGRB/KAPX RAOBs, measuring PWATs of 0.32 and 0.22 inches, respectively. This has resulted in a clear and dry day with a quick warm-up from chilly morning lows. Lake breezes have kicked up and are keeping areas adjacent to the Great Lakes cooler, although CAMs suggest the strengthening southerly gradient on the back side of the highs will limit inland penetration for areas roughly west of Marquette County. Northern Rockies troughing shifts east a bit tonight, but the lead shortwave will take a more northeasterly track into the Canadian Prairies, which will limit the overall eastward push of the better moisture and forcing. Still, a plume of 1" PWATs is expected to approach the western UP by 12Z Friday, and convergence along the weakening low-level cold front will allow some showers to approach that area late tonight. Meanwhile in the east, it looks like another good radiational cooling night with a small area of PWATs around 0.20" forecast. Went toward the NBM10 percentile there with lows in the upper 30s interior east and south, while the continued southerly gradient and increasing clouds will likely keep lows elevated in the 50s for the west. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern plains with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. More shortwave energy moves into the northern plains 00z Sat with the ridge over the lower Great Lakes. This energy then moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sat into Sat night. Kept pops confined to the west on Fri into Fri evening and then with a weak front in the area, have chance pops in for late Fri night into Sat. Did cut pops back a bit though and kept them in the chance category. NBM was going likely which seemed too high given that the system with this front is heading northeast away from the area and the front is weakening. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the northern Rockies 12z Sun which moves quickly into the upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. More troughing then moves into the northern Rockies 12z Tue which moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. This trough remains over the area into 12z Thu. Active weather pattern continues with a sfc front hanging around the area and temperatures will stay above normal this period. Mon looks to be a widespread rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are likely to continue through the TAF period. Moisture will increase from the southwest tonight at IWD with cigs lowering to 4-5kft and a chance of showers late tonight into Friday. A period of low-level wind shear is expected between roughly 08-13Z at IWD as southwesterly winds increase to around 40kt at 2kft AGL. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure slowly shifts southeast over the Great Lakes Basin into this weekend. Winds stay at or below 20 knots through the forecast period with no major systems in the vicinity of Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Thompson MARINE...07