964
FXUS63 KMQT 091925
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
325 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers are expected today with breezy north winds
  gusting up to 20-30 mph, especially over the eastern U.P.

- A Canadian high pressure brings dry weather and chilly
  temperatures tonight and Monday night. Patchy frost is
  possible both nights.

- A warming trend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
  are expected mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over southwest
Quebec which moves to the Canadian Maritimes by 12z Mon. Clouds are
slowly moving south with dry air just north of Lake Superior early
this afternoon. This dry air will slowly move south and help to
clear out the clouds and end the upslope north flow drizzle and
light showers by this evening. There could be some patchy frost
tonight in the interior west with clear skies and light winds
leading to decent radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The work week starts off with an omega shape mid level pattern with
a positively tilted ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley that is
stuck between a trough over the Lower Great Lakes/New England and
another trough over Saskatchewan. As this pattern shifts east and
breaks down through Tuesday night, the western trough passes over
the UP late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Meanwhile,
another trough moves off the Pacific on Tuesday into British
Columbia. This trough then propagates east along the Canadian
Prairie Provinces to the Upper Great Lakes for late next week. Hit
and miss chances for showers continue the rest of the work week with
broad troughing over the region.


High pressure keeps the weather dry Monday through Tuesday morning.
Temps warm up from the weekend into the 60s under sunny skies on
Monday save for the eastern Lake Superior shores which stay cooler
in the 50s. With increased mixing to around 900-850mb, higher mixing
over the interior west, min RHs are expected in the mid 20s to mid
30s. Northerly winds will be stronger over the east (gusting up to
20-25mph) where RHs are not as low thanks to cooler onshore flow off
Lake Superior; this does flirt with borderline elevated wildfire
conditions, but mitigating our threat will be the antecedent wet
environment courtesy of plenty of wet weather lately. The cool and
dry airmass remains overhead for Monday night under clear skies
yielding another period of below normal temps. Lows Monday night are
expected in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmer near the lakeshores. Some
additional patchy frost is possible.

On Tuesday, a mid level trough and associated sfc low move east from
Manitoba to Ontario, with pretty robust positive theta-e advection
out ahead of it as southerly flow tightens up. Resulting isentropic
ascent, coupled with some weak PVA rippling out ahead of the
approaching trough, could touch off some showers and storms across
the western UP as early as Tuesday afternoon. However, most
convection holds off until the evening as the associated cold front
moves through. With latest model guidance indicating bulk shear
around 30-35 kts and only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE by then, strong
storms are not likely and severe potential remains very low as the
cold front moves through. That said, if anything can develop earlier
in the afternoon in the western UP, it could be worth monitoring
given the warmer, more moist airmass.

Descent behind the passing shortwave may lead to a brief period of
drier weather into early Wednesday. However, troughing over the
region through late week and passing embedded shortwaves tracking
through, expect on and off rain chances later Wednesday at least
through Friday. Global models are coming into agreement on ridging
into next weekend, but as this starts to slide out Sunday, some PoPs
do sneak in. Given uncertainty regarding timing this far out, have
continued to lean NBM for PoPs the rest of the forecast period.
Temperatures will feel more summer-ey the rest of the week, with
highs ranging well into the 70s for most of the area Wed-Sun and
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

MVFR cigs will improve to VFR conditions later this afternoon
which lasts through the rest of the TAF period at all sites.
Will start to improve first at CMX and last at SAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Winds come in primarily out of the northwest the rest of today and
through Monday morning. Gusts around 20-25kts are common across the
eastern half of the lake, but with stronger ~30kt flow aloft, there
is still a 40-60% chance for higher observing platforms to see gusts
approach 30 kts until later this evening. As high pressure builds in
from the northwest tonight into Monday, winds fall back below the 20
kt threshold. The next potential for winds to exceed 20 kts is
Tuesday into Wednesday when a low pressure system tracks north of
Lake Superior, but chances of winds exceeding 20 kts are low (20-
40%) given the stability over the lake. Winds fall below 20 knots by
Thursday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...LC