Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
631 FXUS63 KMQT 080302 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1102 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few stronger storms capable of small hail and gusty winds are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly east-central. - Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the influence of low pressure, then warming and drying early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Forecast remains mostly on track this evening with breezy west winds calming substantially over the past two hours as sunset approached then passed. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid-50s, but there are a few spots already in the upper 40s and expect that to become more widespread overnight. Regional satellite/radar imagery show the next weather-maker over ND/MN/WI this evening. Radar returns over WI appear to be mostly virga as of 11 PM, but returns over MN/ND are reaching the ground as light rain/drizzle. The latest model guidance brings this batch of light rain into the far western area between 5-8 AM then across most of the central UP throughout the morning. By the afternoon, a cold front/lake breeze hybrid initiates showers and a few thunderstorms with the highest chances near Lake MI. Model soundings indicate up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and bulk shear up to 40 knots suggests a few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds are possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 This afternoon features a weak midlevel ridge building over the Upper Great Lakes while a weakening trough continues to exit eastward over eastern Ontario. Increasing subsidence is resulting in a drier midlevel airmass overhead, with clearing skies across most of the western half of the UP. That said, plenty of lower level cloud cover lingers across the eastern UP so far, and sporadic weak radar returns hint at a potential for a few sprinkles through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, with a tighter pressure gradient still present across the UP, wind gusts to around 20-30mph are still common. Where skies have been able to clear out, temperatures are climbing well into the 50s and lower 60s. In the eastern UP, where skies remain cloudy, temperatures may only peak in the mid 50s. Any lingering cloud cover in the eastern UP should clear out this evening, but with another shortwave ejecting out of the Northern Plains tonight, expect clouds to fill back in from west to east the second half of the night. We may see some showers moving into the western UP by sunrise. Winds turn light tonight while temperatures fall back into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Upper air pattern consists of an elongated trough and several closed lows along most of the Canadian/U.S. border into New England 12z Sat. Upper level troughing slowly moves south through upper Great Lakes Sat and Sat night. Upper high pressure ridging then moves into the area on Mon. Next chance for rain moves into the area on Sat into Sat evening and then another chance for pcpn Sun before it dries out Sun night. Pcpn chances do not look that great and will be mostly hit and miss. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the western U.S. and across the upper Great Lakes with a trough in the northern plains 12z Tue. This trough moves through the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed with more upper level troughing near the area 12z Thu through 12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal on Tue to above normal Wed through Fri. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 806 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR cigs have returned to UP terminals and are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Another day of gusty west winds gradually diminish this evening as the sun sets. The next disturbance is currently over North Dakota and brings overcast skies and light rain chances Saturday morning, but cig/vsby restrictions are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of SAW Saturday afternoon and may result in gusty/erratic winds and brief cig/vsby restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Winds stay below 20 knots through Sunday morning before increasing to 20 to 25 knots Sun afternoon. The wind then stays again below 20 knots Sunday night through the end of the forecast period as no strong pressure systems are near the area. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...EK MARINE...07